551 FXUS64 KSHV 220924 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 424 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday night/ Upper level ridging will remain centered across the SE CONUS over Alabama and Georgia today, with the western extent over our CWA. Deep low level moisture will continue to advect into the region today, which is evident by the low cloud development this morning across east TX and adjacent western Louisiana this morning. These low cigs will spread northward across the western half of the region during the early morning hours, then lifting by mid morning. Models are also suggesting some isolated to widely scattered convection today across portions of East TX, West- Central Louisiana and Northwest Louisiana. The leading edge of this convection has already developed along the Upper TX Gulf Coast this morning and should move into Deep East TX by late morning. Convection may expand a bit with the aid of daytime heating, but should diminish by sunset. The best chance will convection will be across our Deep East TX counties. Late this evening, a large upper trough across the Plains will shift southeast towards our region. The northern extent of the upper ridge will flatten and allow the trough and associated cool front to move into the extreme northern sections of the region, generally north of the Interstate 30 corridor, late tonight into early Monday morning. Scattered convection near the front and associated upper trough will move into the aforementioned areas persisting through the day on Monday into the evening hours. Some additional diurnal driven isolated convection will be possible across most of the remainder of the region, but the best chance for precipitation will be confined to near the trough axis/frontal boundary. There still remains some uncertainty as to how far SSE the convection will build across our Nrn zones, but attm, the best chances appear to be along and north of Interstate 30. With the influence of the upper ridge across the region, afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 90s despite the isolated convection today. Dew points in the 70s will allow for humid conditions and Heat Index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Similar temperatures expected again on Monday, except across areas near the frontal boundary, where clouds and rain could keep temperatures several degrees cooler than today. /20/ .LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ Upper ridging will be centered across the NE Gulf to start Tue with an ejecting upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes and into the NE U.S. This trough will have a residual cold frontal boundary which should pull up stationary in the vicinity of our NE Zones and will serve as a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our northern and northeast half. As we move into Wed and Thu, the upper ridge axis gets shunted a little further south with southwest flow developing across the Southern Plains as a closed low across the Southwest CONUS opens up and ejects northeastward into the Southern Plains on Friday. Included widely scattered pops across our extreme NW zones Wed and areawide for Thu as this flow should be able to tap a little more Gulf moisture with diurnally driven pops possible. By next weekend, upper ridging across the SE CONUS will begin to retrograde westward and should encompass much of the Tenn Valley Sat and much of the center portions of the country by Sun. Under this pattern, we should see good subsidence which will result in much above normal temperatures. Warmed MOS guidance up several degrees for next weekend with afternoon highs possibly pushing the middle to upper 90s across much of the region next weekend. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1048 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ AVIATION... S-se winds at least 5 kts across most of the area overnight. Fog not expected across most of the area although keld could see brief patchy fog with slightly better radiation cooling. Clouds returning quickly in se flow, yet well elevated in vfr cat. Clouds may lower somewhat later tonight to low vfr to high mvfr by the time they reach areal terminals. Cigs will likely begin to scatter btwn 22/15-16z. South winds increasing to at least 10 kts by midday with some gusts over ne TX to near 20 kts. South winds to remain 5 to 10 kts after 23/00z as pressure gradient to the west tightens./07/. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 92 72 92 72 / 20 10 20 10 MLU 95 70 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 90 70 87 69 / 10 40 40 40 TXK 91 72 89 71 / 10 20 40 30 ELD 92 70 92 69 / 10 10 40 20 TYR 92 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 GGG 92 71 91 71 / 20 10 20 10 LFK 90 71 91 71 / 30 10 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 20/13