234 FXUS63 KICT 212312 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 612 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Storms continue to develop across south central and southeast KS. Instability decreases from central to eastern KS, with about 3000 J/KG MLCAPE across south central KS, decreasing to around 1000 J/KG in far southeast KS. Of note, combo of 0-3km CAPE and SRH has led to a funnel cloud and a very brief tornado with the strongest storm. Key for any additional spin-ups would be a surface boundary or favorable movement along forward flank downdraft. So far both seem to be lacking, although subsequent storms might be able to take advantage of outflow boundary from current/earlier storms. Strong 850MB moisture transport is occurring across the southeast quart of the state. This combined with favorable flow aloft from approach 300MB speed maximum leads to a distinct possibility that storms across south central/ southeast KS will persist past sunset, becoming elevated and increasing. So far, high resolution models have not had a good handle on these storms. Will continue to monitor trends for now. Do expect storms to continue along front, but remains to be seen how far south storms will propagate given stationary or potential retreating front in response to approaching wave. -Howerton && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Area of strong low and mid-level moisture transport may continue to support some widely scattered elevated, quasi-surface based convection along/east of the turnpike late this afternoon. However, the more robust surface based storms are expected to develop along the front in central Kansas by early evening, where bulk shear of 35-40kts, around 2800 j/kg of MLcape will support severe storms. While mainly a large hail and down-burst wind threat, a non-zero brief tornado risk is possible with any initial discrete cells. Otherwise, the mode should transition to linear clusters along the front later in the evening. Main risk overnight will be heavy rainfall. Southwesterly low level jet impinging over the front may promote a period of back-building/northward propagation within the developing mesoscale complex across central Kansas. Then later in the night thru Sunday morning, another area of convection within the deeper moisture transport should develop along/east of the turnpike across the southern Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. The front is expected to progress south across the area on Sunday with best convective chances and potential for localized heavy rainfall lingering across southeast Kansas until late afternoon. Progressive clearing/drying is expected in the wake of the departing front and upper trof Sunday night with dry and seasonably mild weather for Monday. However, moisture is expected to return by Tuesday with a return of modest precip/ convective chances. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A significant upper trof will sweep east-southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday sending a decent cold front south across Kansas. This should drop temperatures closer to late September climo Wednesday and/or Thursday depending on the timing. A large vortex aloft develops across Canada for mid to late in the week as a deeper trough develops along the West coast. This will kick out a closed low from the Baja region/Southwest CONUS as a trof moving northeast across the Plains. Temperatures should warm in the southerly flow on Friday and probably remain warm into Saturday. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Scattered showers and storms impacting southeast KS and KCNU during the morning hours will gradually propagate eastward away from the area as we move into the mid afternoon hours. Other showers and storms may develop within the moist axis over central OK impacting portions of southeast KS later this afternoon. Meanwhile, VFR and breezy southwest winds prevailed across central KS through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will veer ahead of a slow moving cold front across central KS this afternoon. This front will provide a focus for some severe storms after 3-5 PM across our central KS counties possibly impacting KRSL, KGBD and KSLN into the evening hours. More widespread storm development tonight will impact much of the area with reduced flight categories likely through much of the night. Winds behind the front will shift to the northwest and this front is expected across central KS in the 11Z-14Z timeframe on Sunday spreading slowly south and eastward across south central Kansas towards midday and southeast KS during the afternoon hours. The front may provide a focus for showers and storms across portions of south central and all of southeast KS during the day on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 68 79 56 81 / 60 60 0 0 Hutchinson 67 77 54 81 / 60 50 0 0 Newton 68 77 54 80 / 70 70 0 0 ElDorado 69 78 54 79 / 80 80 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 69 79 56 80 / 80 80 10 0 Russell 61 77 55 84 / 80 40 0 0 Great Bend 62 76 54 83 / 80 40 0 0 Salina 66 76 55 82 / 90 60 0 0 McPherson 66 75 53 80 / 80 60 0 0 Coffeyville 70 79 59 82 / 80 90 30 0 Chanute 70 78 55 80 / 80 90 30 0 Iola 70 78 54 80 / 80 90 20 0 Parsons-KPPF 70 78 57 81 / 80 90 30 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ052-053- 069>072-093>096-098>100. Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ033-048-049. && $$ MESOSCALE...PJH SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...MWM