350 FXUS63 KFGF 210827 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 327 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Very busy night across the FA, with severe weather warnings followed by various flood related warnings. The severe thunderstorm watch has now expired and also cancelled the flash flood watch, as there are numerous flood and flash flood warnings now in effect. The main line of storms now extends from Valley City to Hillsboro to Fertile to Roosevelt. Still getting decent rainfall rates along this line, so will have to keep an eye on it for the rest of the night. Have had flash flood warnings in effect along the line, but have transitioned some of these to areal flood warnings as some of the initial flash flood warnings have expired. The immediate flash flooding threat is transitioning in many areas to a longer duration general areal flood threat as the water makes its way through the relatively flat drainage basins in this FA. Will be able to see how things look once the sun rises and more county officials get out across their areas. A decent wave is consolidating the various lingering areas of precipitation over North and South Dakota. High resolution model guidance shows the remaining dry gaps over southeast North Dakota into the southern Red River Valley filling in the next hour or so and then lifting northeast into northwest Minnesota around and after sunrise. Once this moves through, the main overnight rain threat should end. Most of the area will probably see a little lull in the action with a potential dry slot, especially for southeast North Dakota. Highs today will again be on the mild side, although not quite as mild as the past few days. There will also be a decent amount of humidity, especially along and east of the Red River. By late morning into the early afternoon, the cold front should push into areas just east of the Red River Valley. Lower cloud amounts in the dry slot over southeast North Dakota up into adjacent areas of Minnesota should quickly recover with good CAPE and shear values during this time frame. High resolution model guidance shows the potential for a few severe storms east of the Valley by late morning and early afternoon, and SPC has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather. It appears the window for any severe weather will close for our FA by late afternoon, as the threat shifts further east along the cold front. Meanwhile, there will be additional shower and potential thunder development around the 500mb low which is expected to mainly track over the Devils Lake basin into the northern Valley. As this low continues to track northeast tonight, precipitation chances should only linger across northwest Minnesota. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Continued to linger some small chances for showers across northwest Minnesota on Sunday. Otherwise high temperatures should fall back into the mid to upper 60s. Still nice, but cooler than the recent 80 degree day stretch. Long wave pattern showing troughing/upper low moving east of region early in the period. Long wave ridge then slides over region late Sun night into Mon before transitioning to a split flow regime for early next week as upper low sinks into SW CONUS. Sunday highs fall into the 60s behind this next cold front, before rebounding into the 70s on Monday. By mid-day Tuesday zonal flow across the northern tier will result in a more progressive pattern. Main feature next week appears to be a srn MB cold frontal passage Tue aftn, which will drop afternoon highs into the upper 50s to lower 60s for the latter half of the week. Models continue to depict positive Showalters indicies, however Canadian does now show weakly negative Showalters and the sfc low is further south than models showed yesterday at this time. Will mention isolated thunder for Tue aftn and evening across the north. Central plains low pressure system then brings chances for some isolated to scattered activity on Days 6 & 7 as the low lifts into the upper Great Lakes late in the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 IFR to occasionally LIFR conditions under heavy thunderstorms in northeast ND and far northwest MN impacting KDVL-KGFK-KBJI. Lull in activity across southeast ND including KFAR and west central MN to KBJI where VFR is currently prevailing. Expect conditions to deteriorate at other locations by 12Z as coverage of thunderstorms increasing at those locations. There will also be a trend towards widespread stratus MVFR (or IFR) during the day Saturday before improvement in all conditions occurs late afternoon and early evening in eastern ND (lower conditions may linger in northwest MN during the evening). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher AVIATION...DJR