515 FXUS61 KBGM 200716 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 316 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring clear weather and warm days to NY and PA through the weekend. A weak front will usher a few showers into the region late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 910 PM UPDATE... Very little to update in the grids this evening with mainly clear skies and light winds. Just some simple temperature adjustments along with update for the winds. Expect extensive valley fog to develop in the morning hours. 240 pm update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the cool overnight temperatures tonight, the valley fog expected Friday morning, and warmer temperatures Friday afternoon. Upper level ridge axis currently over the Great Lakes will slide to the east tonight and Friday along with a noticeably warmer air mass. 850 mb temps under this ridge are in the +13 to +15 deg C range. Large scale suppression will continue to be the main story across central NY and ne PA through tomorrow with mostly clear skies tonight and calm winds leading to another cold air drainage situation and more valley fog into Friday morning. A good portion of the area will see temperatures fall into the 40s tonight...with a few upper 30s not out of the question in the Catskills. The axis of the ridge will be directly overhead Friday and basically become the dominant feature in the area, and keep weather conditions quiet across the region through the day. Skies should remain mostly sunny after the fog lifts...with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 245 am update... The weekend continues to look great with high pressure remaining in control. A weak short wave will pass the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, but this shouldn't bring anything but maybe an increase in clouds for early Sunday morning. As mentioned in the previous discussion, any clouds overnight will help limit the amount of radiational cooling and also the potential for valley fog. High pressure will start to shift eastward out into the Atlantic on Sunday and this will allow SW flow to develop through the day and push Sunday's high temperatures into the low 80s for a large portion of the area. A cold front will start to approach from the west Sunday night into Monday morning, but all guidance is suggesting that this feature will hold off until later Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 am update... Latest model guidance is in good agreement, delaying the arrival of the cold front until Monday afternoon. High confidence for at least likely PoPs Monday afternoon/evening as the guidance is now honing in at that time frame. The front completely exits the forecast area Monday night with upper trough settling over Central NY behind the surface front. There is a very low chance for some light post frontal showers and lingering clouds in the NW flow into Tuesday morning. However, high pressure/subsidence, and low-level dry air quickly moves in by Tuesday afternoon, so this should limit any diurnal showers on Tuesday, even with the upper trough still within the vicinity. Model solutions diverge towards the middle of the week, but they are hinting that another frontal system could affect the region by the end of the week, but major timing errors exist at this time. Would not be surprised if this next front gets delayed until Friday and that it will be a fairly dry front with little rainfall, as it is going to be very difficult to break down the broad ridge that will be in place over the Eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clear skies and light winds are forecast through the next 24 hours with the exception of KELM, which will see IFR/LIFR fog between 0600z and 1330z. Fog will burn off by mid-morning. Outlook... Friday night through Sunday...VFR except late night/early morning valley fog expected for at least KELM; possibly KITH and KBGM for brief periods as well. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but some restrictions possible in showers as front crosses, especially Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday...VFR conditions likely with high pressure building in. May see some patchy fog at KELM in the morning. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...DJP