612 FXUS62 KTAE 200056 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 856 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 .UPDATE... Most locations across the region failed to reach the 90 degree mark this afternoon. With the cooler and drier airmass in place, overnight low temps are expected to dip into the lower 60s across our northernmost zones and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. No changes to the grids or zones were needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION [715 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... As the backdoor cold front exits to the southwest, dry and gusty conditions will persist. High pressure centered near the Carolina coast will continue to result in easterly winds through the night. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s this afternoon, with lows down to the 60s tonight. This will be cooler than the past few mornings and with the drier air in place, it should feel quite pleasant in the morning. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The short term period will be dominated by the surface ridge of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic States with our region in fairly strong ENE flow. This type of pattern will feature a break from the unusually warm summertime temperatures with a return of more typical weather for late September. Afternoon highs are only expected to be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Model guidance has been fairly consistent showing overnight lows at most sites in the mid 60s, though some areas dropping into the lower 60s is possible by Sunday morning as the pressure gradient further relaxes across the area. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... The long term forecast is also fairly quiet, initially with the surface high pressure area remaining in place, then gradually weakening with time. This will result in rain chances near zero through the period, and as the airmass modifies, slightly warmer temperatures each day. By Tuesday and beyond, the models build a ridge across the Florida Peninsula which keeps any approaching storm systems from the west from reaching the forecast area. .AVIATION... [Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with easterly winds becoming gusty at times on Friday. .MARINE... A tight pressure gradient over the marine area is expected through the weekend as the high pressure area remains across the Mid Atlantic States. This will lead to nocturnal surges in easterly flow, increasing winds to advisory levels during the overnight hours, with some decrease by afternoon. The gradient will relax by Monday, with a return to more tranquil marine conditions. .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... With no rain in the forecast, there are no flood concerns. The current forecast has rain chances less than 10 percent through the entire period, which ends on September 27th. If this forecast verifies, the Tallahassee International Airport would still be at a trace of rainfall for September. Should the month end with no additional rainfall, this would be the driest September on record. Records at Tallahassee date back to 1885. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 89 66 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 71 87 70 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 64 86 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 85 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 86 66 87 64 / 0 10 0 0 0 Cross City 68 88 68 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 73 85 72 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...Barry NEAR TERM...Fieux SHORT TERM...Godsey LONG TERM...Godsey AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Godsey FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Godsey