460 
FXUS63 KFSD 192036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Southeast winds will continue to draw increasing moisture into the 
region tonight. Band of 850 mb warm air advection oriented from 
northwest to southeast lifts north through the overnight leading to 
a chance of elevated storms.  Limited shear and instability should 
keep storms below severe limits, but could see some small hail with 
stronger updrafts.  

Warm air advection lingers in the east on Friday potentially leading 
to a stray shower or two across southwest Minnesota through the 
morning hours, but the crux of the warm air advection shifts 
northeast. Fairly tight gradient across the Northern Plains will 
result in a strong south winds gusting upwards of 30 knots in the 
peak heating hours Friday afternoon. Elevated mixed layer looks to 
keep the atmosphere largely capped throughout the day on Friday, but 
as leading short wave associated with elongated upper level trough 
lifts northeast have increasing chances of precipitation. 
Precipitable water approaches 1.5" with 30-40 knot low level jet 
ushering moisture north from an open gulf. Potential for heavy 
rainfall exists, especially with training of storms.  Best chances 
of heavy rain look to be focused closer to the mid level wave in 
central South Dakota early Saturday morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Dry slot lifts northeast into the forecast area on Saturday bringing 
an end to the precipitation from west to east.  Cooler air filters 
into the region from the northwest with 925-850 mb layer cooling 
around 5 C. This will result in high temperatures returning closer 
to normal on Sunday. 

Warmer air works into the region Monday into Tuesday as upper ridge 
develops ahead of trough developing off the west coast.  Models are 
in fairly good agreement that wave will head south on the leading 
edge of a much stronger jet diving into the Midwest the middle 
portion of next week.  Still quite a bit of uncertainty on 
temperatures as the week progresses, so stuck close to the blend 
which is near climatology.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions expected through 06Z Friday. Thereafter, warm air
adviection may promote isolate thunderstorms to develop. Could see
MVFR ceilings with early morning convection. Any temporary MVFR
conditions should transition to VFR, with increasing southerly
winds Friday morning. 


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BT