772 FXUS61 KRLX 191820 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm and dry weather persists through the weekend. Weak cold front crosses Monday into Monday night. High pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front approaches Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1200 PM Thursday... Patchy mountain valley fog possible tonight, with light winds expected. Elsewhere, little fog development expected, although cant rule out areas along rivers. Friday, continued dry under the influence of high pressure with light winds. Did elect to bump up temperatures slightly from blend of models, based on building heights and continued dry/sunny air mass in place. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... A highly amplified pattern will be in place to start the short term period with strong H5 ridging anchored across the southeast CONUS and a potent upper trough across the central/northern Plains. While this pattern generally suggests that the warm and dry pattern will continue into the weekend across our area, models do suggest that a weak shortwave will rotate around the north side of the ridge on Saturday, perhaps leading to a chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the day. The GFS is more aggressive in this potential than the ECMWF and feel that the drier ECMWF solution is more favorable at this time given heights aloft as high as 590 dm - supporting warm mid level temperatures. Thus, will leave PoPs out of the forecast for now as the warming aloft should preclude much in the way of precip development. Upper ridge in the southeast CONUS remains in control on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the upper Great Lakes will support a strengthening pressure gradient across the region on Sunday. This will lead to increasingly breezy conditions throughout the day and given the potential for dry air mixing in the afternoon and quickly decreasing RH values, an elevated fire danger day will be possible. Otherwise, the strengthening southerly flow will send temperatures into the upper 80s throughout the area and some isolated locations may reach 90F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... Upper level trough and associated cold front will sweep across the region Sunday night into Monday, with showers and possibly a few storms moving across the region from west to east. Precipitation associated with the fropa should move east of the area by early Tuesday morning as the frontal boundary and upper trough move eastward and high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. This feature will promote dry conditions on Tuesday with cooler temperatures, but temperatures should still be a few degrees above normal. Model solutions then begin to diverge by the middle to end of the next week. The ECMWF wants to maintain dry conditions with continued influence of high pressure, but the GFS wants to bring a shortwave trough through the region on Wednesday with precipitation across the area. In addition, temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the end of long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM Thursday... VFR conditions with light surface winds through 08Z when patchy dense mountain valley fog is expected to develop. Expect brief IFR conditions in vcnty of fog. Any fog will dissipate after 14Z with a return of VFR conditions area wide with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not materialize in deeper valleys tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Early morning river valley fog possible each morning, especially at EKN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/RG NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RG LONG TERM...RG AVIATION...SL