469 FXUS63 KICT 191123 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Pesky ridge over the Ohio valley and the gulf coast states continues to slowly break down today, as the shortwave along the west coast of the Conus makes slow progress into the Rockies. Current models have been trending slower with this shortwave, eventually lifting into the northern Rockies tonight into Fri. So for the short term, this will keep most of the forecast area in south-southwest flow again today, with similar max temps from the previous days, almost 10 degrees above normal. So a persistence forecast looks like the way to go. The ridge over the Ohio valley continues to break down for this afternoon with Gulf moisture beginning to stream back north into the plains by this afternoon and tonight. This will lead to increasing chances of diurnally driven showers/storms for the afternoon hours. This afternoon looks like more of a dryline day for western KS, in the weakly capped environment. Think storms are possible along the north to south oriented dryline in western KS late this afternoon, with some of this convection possibly making its way into western sections of the forecast area for late this evening. The better chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms looks to occur on Fri, as tropical moisture remnants from TD Imelda lift north through ern OK and the Ark Ozarks , possibly into ern KS, for Fri afternoon/evening. Think areas east of the KS Turnpike will see widespread showers and a few storms for Fri afternoon as this moisture plume spreads north, with the weakly capped environment. Latest GFS shows widespread low level moisture transport for the daytime into the evening hours, for a widespread off and on shower chance. Latest models do show limited instability for widespread thunder chances, so more of an embedded thunder chance. Think the best chance for widespread showers will be for areas east of the KS Turnpike, but could see showers as far west as KICT and KSLN. Precipitable water values of 190-200 percent of normal, suggests pockets of heavy rainfall may also occur, but pinpointing where the heaviest rainfall will occur is still uncertain, given the lack of any surface boundary to focus the storms. Medium range models have been trending slower with a frontal boundary expected to push into the forecast area for Fri night into Sat. GFS and ECMWF now suggest that the frontal boundary will push into central KS for Sat/Sat afternoon. Abundant moisture will still be located south of the slow moving boundary for increasing chances of showers/thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon/evening. A moderately unstable airmass will be located south of the front, with increasing bulk shear also suggesting a severe storm chance for Sat afternoon/evening. Very high precipitable water values will still be located to the south of the boundary as well, suggesting very efficient rainfall producers. So heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be an increasing concern going into Sat night. GFS low level moisture transport vectors continue to feed low level moisture into this boundary for most of Sat into Sun as it slowly pushes south, which could pose a threat of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas along and east of the KS Turnpike. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Latest medium range models and GFS ensemble members suggest that the frontal boundary may push into southern KS by Sunday, before stalling either across southern KS or northern OK. With SW flow moisture transport continuing over this boundary for early Sun, think scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for a good portion of Sunday as well. More uncertain is how Sunday night into Mon will play out, with the position on the front being uncertain. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to continue for the beginning of the week, as the medium range models are somewhat similar in the boundary lifting back north as a warm front for either Mon afternoon or Mon night with low level moisture returning as well. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Primary aviation concerns: LLWS, gusty winds, TSRA The frontal boundary that was approaching our area last night has stalled north of the local area and will return north as a warm front over the next 24 hrs. This will leave our forecast area in a warm sector with no real focus for SHRA/TSRA. That said, the chance of TSRA isn't zero. An isolated TSRA may develop within the open warm sector this afternoon as low-level moisture increases well north of Tropical Depression Imelda. Additionally, TSRA expected to form over the High Plains of western Kansas later today may drift east and possibly clip western sections of central /south- central KS this evening. Confidence is low with both scenarios. Given such a low confidence, I opted to remove the VCTS mention from KGBD and KRSL and left out any mention elsewhere. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with mostly mid/upper level clouds and some afternoon/evening cumulus. LLWS conditions are possible, but the threat looks fairly marginal and I'll leave out any mention for now. Main threat area would be later tonight across central KS. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 90 68 82 70 / 0 10 20 20 Hutchinson 90 68 82 70 / 10 10 20 20 Newton 89 68 81 70 / 0 10 20 20 ElDorado 89 68 80 71 / 0 10 30 20 Winfield-KWLD 89 68 81 70 / 0 10 30 20 Russell 93 68 86 69 / 10 20 20 20 Great Bend 91 67 85 68 / 10 20 20 10 Salina 92 69 85 71 / 10 10 20 20 McPherson 90 67 82 69 / 10 10 20 20 Coffeyville 91 69 81 71 / 0 10 50 30 Chanute 90 69 81 71 / 0 10 60 30 Iola 90 69 82 71 / 0 10 50 20 Parsons-KPPF 90 69 80 71 / 0 10 50 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...RM