437 
FXUS63 KLMK 190515
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

... Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Updated at 335 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The afternoon update for the short term is largely a persistence 
forecast, with a couple of minor differences to note. The cu field 
has blossomed nicely over the Bluegrass region this afternoon, with 
areas further south and west remaining mainly sunny. Temperatures 
are running in the 85-90 degree range. 

Upper level ridging will continue to hold firm over the region. The 
850 mb ridge axis will slowly slide eastward, allowing more of a 
southerly component to the low level winds on Thursday. This should 
help boost temperatures slightly, although low level thickness do 
not change much (a small increase in the western CWA). 

There continues to be a signal for SCT-BKN stratus developing 
Thursday morning, especially east of I-65. These clouds will tend to 
slide north of the area and scatter out more during the afternoon. 
Temperatures in the Bluegrass region should be a bit slower to rise 
between 12-18z. Have afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s east of I-
65 and upper 80s/low 90s near and west of I-65. Morning lows will 
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Updated at 259 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Upper level ridging will remain in place through much of the 
weekend, keeping the region hot and dry. Upper 80s to even some low 
90s will be possible Fri-Sun. The ridge will begin to break down as 
a trough swings in from the west, dragging with it a weak surface 
cold front. The front will generate some showers and thunderstorms 
ahead of it Sunday into Monday, though the heaviest rains will 
likely stay to our north and west where the better forcing/moisture 
resides. 

The forecast going beyond Monday becomes a bit uncertain as models 
diverge on how the upper level fields evolve. In general, they show 
a strong trough digging into the western CONUS and eventually 
transitioning into an upper level low, but vary on how far east the 
low wobbles. There has been a westward trend with the placement of 
the upper level low in the latest 12z guidance, with it not 
affecting our region through the 7 day forecast. As a result, we're 
not likely to see any beneficial rains through the midweek timeframe.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected during this TAF period. While current 
satellite imagery is picking up on some low level moisture across 
south central Kentucky, fog does not seem likely to impact any 
TAF sites. Wind speeds will gradually increase throughout Thursday
and could become gusty at times at BWG and LEX. Otherwise, light 
winds out of the southeast are expected to return to all TAF sites
by Thursday evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term....DM
Aviation...SSC