600 FXUS61 KLWX 181837 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place over the region through this weekend. The high that was sitting over our region will sink southeasterly out of our region as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong upper level ridge will remain in place over the eastern half of the United States. High pressure will be in place at the surface over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US through this evening. This pattern will lead to continued dry conditions for the rest of day and peak high temperatures in the 70s. Scattered cumulus clouds will remain over our area through this afternoon due to a Northeasterly to easterly flow. Overnight, temps will drop down into the 50s with a few areas in the higher elevations dropping into the upper 40s. Skies are expected to become mostly clear overnight with some thicker cumulus clouds possible over central Virginia near Charlottesville. Some patchy fog could be possible in the valleys of central Virginia overnight into early Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A strong upper level ridge will remain in place over the eastern half of the United States through Friday evening. High pressure will be in place over our region during this period. Dry conditions along with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions expected during this period. Winds will begin out of the northeast to east on Thursday and slowly become southerly by Friday. Daytime temperatures will continue to be mild in the 70s with overnight temps in the 40s and the low 50s. Temps will trend upwards into the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday with more mild overnight temps in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-upper level ridge will be in control through Sunday leading to hot and dry weather. The ridge pattern starts breaking down Sunday night as a trof extending from James Bay to the eastern Great Lks swings through the Northeast U.S. An associated cold front will cross the area late Monday night or Tue morning. This front will lack deep moisture, frontal convergence, and will be passing through during an unfavorable time of day to support widespread convection. Expect only few- sct showers Mon night with only light precip amounts expected as the front moves through. The trof axis will cross the area on Tue with upper level convergence and surface high pressure building on its wake leading to continued above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region through Friday. Scattered to Broken cumulus clouds will continue through this afternoon. VFR conditions expected through Friday but a mid level deck of clouds will be possible over central Virginia and the CHO terminal during the overnight periods. VFR conditions expected with no significant weather this weekend through Monday. && .MARINE... Small craft advisories are in effect for the Tidal Potomac and the central Chesapeake Bay this evening through the tomorrow morning. No marine hazards expected Thursday through Friday night at this time. Possible SCA conditions Monday in westerly flow ahead of a front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Onshore flow will continue to elevate water levels at the mouth of the bay, which can't escape at low tide. Water levels further north in our area will subsequently continue to rise (already 1-1.5+ feet). This will result in minor flooding, possibly near moderate by later Thursday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR/JMG MARINE...LFR/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...