094 FXUS66 KOTX 181118 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 418 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be cool and showery with afternoon temperatures in the 50s and 60s which is nearly 15 degrees below average. Periods of showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle Thursday and Friday. Our best shot of a dry day region-wide will be Saturday before the arrival of another moist frontal system on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday night: Large upper level area of low pressure to continue to influence sensible weather over Eastern Washington and North Idaho through this time interval. The conditionally unstable airmass along with minor small scale disturbances contained in this trof keep potential for showery weather on even some chances potential for thunderstorms tomorrow. Pops and shower changes remain highest today with a slight decrease tonight. The expected slow movement of any resulting showers and thunderstorms could result in the possibility of localized flooding, in addition to the hazards produced by lightning and downpours. Thursday into Thursday night most of the instability and disturbances drop further to the south and east and the northwest quadrant of the trof has a bigger influence with its positive ridging becoming more pronounced. This results in pops decreasing over most, if not all, lowland locations Thursday and Thursday night. In addition the cold trof aloft influence will be reflected in forecast temperatures remaining on the cool side of what would be considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti Friday through Saturday: The upper trough will continue to push eastward Friday as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. A few showers will continue to be possible Friday, mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and along the Cascade crest. Much of the region will remain dry however, and the drying trend will continue into Saturday as the upper ridge builds overhead. Look for high temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands, which is a few degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Sunday through Tuesday: The next weather system is likely to arrive on Sunday. Confidence is increasing that the mountains will see rain with this event. Longer range models continue to struggle with the strength of this system, which leaves lower forecast confidence in precipitation across the valleys and basins. The general consensus is for flat ridging to return Monday or Tuesday, bringing a return to drier weather. Dang && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: -RA will linger over the aviation area most of today. MVFR ceilings may occur at times with some IFR cigs possible towards morning around PUW but confidence isn't high. -SHRA will develop in the aftn with some thunder possible. Showers will decrease after 02Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 58 43 65 46 66 45 / 80 30 10 10 10 10 Coeur d'Alene 56 42 64 45 64 45 / 80 30 10 10 10 20 Pullman 60 41 62 42 64 42 / 80 40 40 10 20 10 Lewiston 64 50 68 51 69 50 / 70 40 50 20 10 10 Colville 59 36 71 39 72 38 / 90 30 0 10 0 10 Sandpoint 54 41 64 44 63 44 / 80 30 10 20 30 30 Kellogg 56 46 61 48 60 48 / 80 40 40 30 50 40 Moses Lake 66 44 71 46 73 45 / 40 30 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 50 70 53 71 52 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 45 70 49 71 48 / 70 20 0 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$