092 FXUS64 KLUB 181108 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 .AVIATION... Short term solutions generally favor eruption of isolated thunderstorms within the surface trough from near KPVW to a little west of KLBB by mid afternoon. Slight eastward migration also indicated prior to dissipation early evening. But favored regions have not been as consistent. For example, a previously favored region near KPVW has lately shifted further southwest to the west of KLBB. With still enough lack of overall certainty on these potential storms impacting the TAF airports, we will decline explicit forecast mention for the 12Z cycle. Hopefully will gain certainty either way by the 18Z cycle as storms may have wind gust potential. VFR expected otherwise with light diurnally driven southwest to southeast components. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ DISCUSSION... Several feature visible across the imagery channels this morning. Out west a deep upper trough continues to move on shore across the PACNW while across the Texas Gulf Coast a tropical system moves inland and further east high pressure aloft remains settled over the remainder of the Gulf Coast. This pattern is resulting in southwest mid and upper flow across the CWA with a transport of moist air aloft. The aforementioned trough will continue to move west across the Great Basin today and tomorrow before expanding as it crosses the Rocky Mountains Friday and early Saturday. This will keep continued SW flow aloft over the FA and increase moisture values aloft each day through the weekend. At the surface southeasterly winds will sustain an inflow of low level moisture across the region through Saturday. Consequently PW values will slowly increase to near 1.5 inches. The increasing moisture and cool air aloft will help destabilize the air mass resulting in thunderstorm chances starting across the western CWA today and becoming more wide spread and intense through the weekend. Sunday into Monday shortwave riding develops aloft with drier conditions as another deep upper trough moves on shore across the PACNW. The latest GFS moves the deepening upper low down the West Coast Tuesday then ingests a tropical disturbance before advecting copious amounts of moisture into the Desert Southwest. The ECMWF also develops a closed low but doesn't "pick up" the tropical disturbance. Both models have varied amounts of precip over the CWFA by mid week next week. Given the fact that this is a week out we will continue with low end to silent blended PoPs until the pattern becomes more solidified. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/05