591 
FXUS61 KBGM 171813
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
213 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through the week, before
shifting east after Sunday. This will bring a prolonged stretch
of quiet weather. Other than typical late night valley fog, 
the sky will be mostly clear with cool nights balanced by 
progressively warmer days. By the weekend many locations will 
reach above 80 degrees for highs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in firm control during this period,
bringing quiet weather.

This afternoon and tonight: Sunny skies are expected to 
continue this afternoon with highs topping out in the upper 60s 
to mid 70s. Mostly clear skies and dry air has set the stage for
chilly nighttime conditions from radiational cooling. Lows 
tonight are expected to mainly be in the lower to upper 40s. 
Valley fog is expected to once again develop after 06Z tonight.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A very similar day to today 
weather-wise will be in place with morning valley fog giving way
to sunny skies. Highs be slightly lower; mainly in the mid 60s 
to lower 70s. Then another radiational cooling night is expected
with lows likely getting down to the lower 40s to upper 40s 
again, with some upper 30s possible in the higher elevations of 
the Catskills. Patchy valley fog will again be possible late 
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
Atmospheric ridging through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes 
will bring an elongated period of quiet weather and summer-like 
temperatures to NY and PA.

Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s on Thursday and into
the middle or upper-70s on Friday. Cool mornings will yield
patchy fog each day, especially along the river valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM update...
Little change to the forecast. Dry weekend before showers Sunday
night to Monday night. Best chances will be Monday afternoon.
Dry on Tuesday and cooler with highs mostly lower 70s. 

previous discussion...
The operational models continue to forecast a beautiful weekend
across NY and PA as high pressure spins over the Mid- Atlantic.
Temperatures will rise into the lower- 80s on Saturday and 
Sunday, making the weather more reminiscent of July than 
September.

A weak cold front will dip into Northern NY Sunday night and
bring a few showers to the region. Monday will remain quite
mild for the last half of September. Scattered showers are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this afternoon 
into this evening as high pressure brings plenty of 
sunshine/clear skies. Similar to this morning, valley fog is 
expected to develop early Wednesday morning, which will bring at
least IFR conditions at KELM and KITH. Visibilities at KELM may
drop down to around 1/4 mile again, which is below airport 
minimums. Fog then likely dissipates by 12Z for KITH and by 14Z 
for KELM.

Winds this afternoon will be mainly northerly at 4-8 knots,
before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds Wednesday
morning/early afternoon will be mainly northeasterly at 4-8
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Sunday...VFR except late night/early morning 
valley fog probable for at least KELM; possibly others.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...BJG