671 FXUS61 KBGM 151743 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 143 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region today but quickly gives way to a cold frontal passage on Monday with some showers. High pressure then builds back into the region through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1050 AM UPDATE...Fog has now burned off leaving mostly sunny skies. Minor update this morning to the temps and sky cover, no other changes needed. Previous discussion below. Only minor changes with the sunrise update. Forecast discussion below on track. Lingering moisture from the previous system has lead to fog and low stratus being around early this morning. We linger the cloud cover longer than model guidance into the mid- morning as per usual occurrence around here. More in the way of sunshine is expected for this afternoon before clouds increase again ahead of the next shortwave. Highs today look warmer in northeast PA where clouds will be later to arrive. 925 mb modeled temperatures indicate model guidance may be a touch cool in these areas and may get into the upper 70's. More in the way of cloud cover ahead of the next shortwave will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler further north. A shortwave looks to move through late Sunday afternoon through the evening hours across the NY Thruway region. Moisture looks rather limited but sufficient enough for a few light showers Sunday evening. Another shortwave looks to track a little further south by monday morning resulting in a few showers for the remainder of the region. These showers should quickly move east of the region by Monday night. Many spots will only fall to around 60 Sunday night with the clouds. A push of cooler air behind the second shortwave should result in highs only getting to 70 for many locations on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 AM Update... High pressure will build in to begin an extended period of dry and quiet weather. Behind the shortwave from Monday, large dry Canadian high pressure will gradually sprawl over the region Monday night through Wednesday. Through the period, upper trough will amplify yet also shift offshore with time. This will make room for an upper ridge that will start leaning into the area Wednesday onward. End result of this is plenty of dry air, and mainly clear sky other than occasional high cirrus from waves glancing to our east within the departing upper trough. We will have near average highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday, plus another degree or two on Wednesday as we get just on the cusp of a coming warming trend for the rest of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 315 AM Update... Persistent high pressure at the surface, combined with strong ridging aloft, will present us with an extended period of dry weather and wide diurnal ranges between seasonably cool nights and warm days. This pattern will give us a mostly clear sky, and thus plenty of sun by day and radiational cooling with typical valley fog each night. Highs will warm from mainly 70s Thursday, to upper 70s-lower 80s by Saturday. Lows will be mid 40s to lower 50s Wednesday night, trending up slightly to mainly 50s by Friday night. GFS-ECMWF-Canadian operational models are in agreement on keeping things dry and warm through at least the remainder of next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wave moves along a stationary front tonight and generates clouds, along with a few showers. Do not expect restrictions to the visibility but ceilings should drop into the MVFR range at most stations. Slow improvement will begin on Monday as the wave moves on and drier air filters in so ceilings will begin to return to VFR. Outlook... Monday night through Friday...VFR except late night/early morning valley fog probable for at least KELM; possibly others. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MWG NEAR TERM...DGM/MWG SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...DGM