807 FXUS63 KIND 151125 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 725 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .UPDATE... The Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A few showers and storms could come into play today and tonight over the northern-northwest counties, then dry weather will build in for the work week along with above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 At 330 am radar mosaic showed an area of showers and storms across northern Indiana, with another larger complex over eastern Iowa and NW Illinois. Temperatures were in the upper 50s to upper 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and mostly calm winds. The showers and storms to the north should stay there and be of little impact to the forecast area. Those over NW Illinois, though, are a bit less predictable in that convective allowing models have not done a great job of capturing the current situation, which garners less confidence in their forecasts. While the storms will be making their way ESE toward the area, forecast soundings show a very dry air mass in place over central Indiana. This will cause a hindrance to the advancement of the convective system. With the placement of the surface high to the southeast of the area and the dry air, hard to tell how far into the forecast area these showers and storms could advance. Given the subsidence in the south went with the highest PoPs (still in the chance category) over the northwest counties late morning into the afternoon. For temperatures went warmer than NBM based on recent verification. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Could see a small chance for a shower or storm tonight, but after that dry weather will build in for the work week under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will be above normal through the period and dry conditions should be the rule. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Models show a long term period dominated much of the time by an upper level ridge. Thus, will go with a dry long term forecast throughout nearly the entire period. A front very late in the weekend will necessitate chances for thunder beyond the end of the period. Temperatures under the ridge will remain above normal for the time of year, largely in the 80s during the day and the 60s at night. Blended initialization handled things relatively well and required only minor adjustment. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/12Z TAFs/... Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 VFR through the period. Weakening complex of showers and storms will have some impact on LAF early in the period, and will carry a VCTS mention there. Lower confidence on any other sites being impacted and thus will not mention it at this time as the cluster of showers and storms is dissipating as it moves east/southeast. Winds will be at or below 10KT through the period, although a few gusts to around 20Kt will be possible this afternoon at LAF. No obstructions to visibility expected outside of any potential shower/storm impacts. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...Nield