273 
FXUS63 KFGF 150909
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
409 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

An expansive area of fog, some dense, over the majority of 
Minnesota will begin to diminish around sunrise as low level WAA 
wanes and mixing begins. This afternoon marks the beginning of the
upcoming warming trend with high temperatures into upper 70s to 
low 80s today. This results from a developing ridge aloft which 
will help keep conditions dry today through tonight. Save some 
passing higher level clouds, this afternoon and evening should be 
quite pleasant.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Ridging aloft continues through Monday. This promotes a blanket 
of warm, dry air aloft to move over the Northern Plains which will
contribute to summer-like temperatures on Monday well into the 
80s, perhaps even flirt with 90 within southeastern ND into the 
southern RRV. Mixing within this air mass will harness higher 
winds aloft allowing for breezy southerly winds Monday afternoon 
gusting in the 25-30 mph range.

40-50 kt low level jet Monday night into Tuesday will bring an 
unstable airmass northward into the area as the 925-850 mb layer 
warms.  It would appear initially the main low level moisture surge 
will reach west central MN 12z Tue with potential for lower clouds 
and this spreading north thru the day, mainly east of the Red River. 
 Issue is precipitation.  Ensembles remain quite dry Tuesday in our 
fcst area and only have precip mentioned Tuesday night.  I feel 
overall it may be too late in producing precipitation and thus did 
expand a low pop a tad west than NBM gave Tuesday aftn.  SPC has 
eastern/SE area in marginal risk for severe, though it is possible 
this may be for Tuesday night ahead of the main 500 mb vort which 
will move thru North Dakota.   Eastern ND is dry slotted Tuesday 
night into Wednesday as precip is east more so into Minnesota and 
to our northwest over NW ND into Sask/W Manitoba.  

Next 500 mb system will move into the N Plains Friday exiting 
Saturday.  This will give a good chance for showers and t-storms to 
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Wanted to update the aviation FD to reflect widespread fog/IFR
conditions within Minnesota. This includes BJI sitting at quarter
mile visibility since around midnight. Fog is expected to diminish
around 13 UTC with prevailing VFR conditions to follow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ016-017-
     022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...CJ/Riddle
AVIATION...CJ