679 FXUS61 KBGM 150633 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 233 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region today but quickly give way to a cold frontal passage on Monday with some showers. High pressure then builds back into the region through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Lingering moisture from the previous system has lead to fog and low stratus being around early this morning. We linger the cloud cover longer than model guidance into the mid-morning as per usual occurrence around here. More in the way of sunshine is expected for this afternoon before clouds increase again ahead of the next shortwave. Highs today look warmer in northeast PA where clouds will be later to arrive. 925 mb modeled temperatures indicate model guidance may be a touch cool in these areas and may get into the upper 70's. More in the way of cloud cover ahead of the next shortwave will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler further north. A shortwave looks to move through late Sunday afternoon through the evening hours across the NY Thruway region. Moisture looks rather limited but sufficient enough for a few light showers Sunday evening. Another shortwave looks to track a little further south by monday morning resulting in a few showers for the remainder of the region. These showers should quickly move east of the region by Monday night. Many spots will only fall to around 60 Sunday night with the clouds. A push of cooler air behind the second shortwave should result in highs only getting to 70 for many locations on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday Night through Tuesday... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the chance for rain showers dropping north to south across the region on Monday along a weak cold front...with mild temperatures and quiet weather into the middle of the week. Upper level short wave and associated surface cold front will move S/SE from the eastern Great Lakes into the nrn Mid Atlantic region on Monday. There does appear to be some instability south of the front, along with a decent amount of deep layer moisture, but shallow lapse rates and weak upper level dynamics should limit the chances for precip to mainly scattered rain showers. The threat for thunderstorms appears to be low enough not to include in the forecast at this point. Temperatures are expected to be fairly mild on Monday with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s in NY, and into the mid to upper 70s in ne PA. Cool overnight lows Monday night into the upper 40s and lower 50s, with potentially patchy fog in the valleys. Large area of high pressure at the surface and heights rising aloft across the Great Lakes will bring in mostly sunny skies, quiet weather and gradually warming temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will inch upward into the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday night through Friday... Very quiet weather conditions through the rest of the week with high pressure dominating at the surface and a high amplitude ridge axis rotating slowly east across the region. Weather conditions will be relatively quiet with a bubble of warm air bringing afternoon high temperatures into the 70s and potentially low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fairly high confidence of IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus for KAVP, KELM and KBGM through the overnight. More uncertainty is present at KITH and KRME where fog formation is possible toward sunrise still. Ceilings will be slow to break up through mid- morning then VFR conditions into tomorrow night. Winds look to be under 10 knots throughout the TAF period. Outlook... Monday...Mainly VFR, though a small chance of showers/brief restrictions. Monday night through Friday...VFR except late night/early morning valley fog probable for at least KELM; possibly others. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MWG