708 FXUS61 KCLE 150616 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 216 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build northeast through the Ohio valley tonight and Sunday. A weak cold front will sink south through the region Sunday night through Monday, with high pressure returning to the area Monday night through midweek. Above average temperatures are expected through the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No changes with the mid evening update. Previous discussion. An area of high pressure was located near Cincinnati this afternoon and continues to build into the Ohio Valley Region. The center of the high pressure will be near southeast Pennsylvania by Sunday morning. It will be a fantastic evening for any outdoor plans with light winds and comfortable temperatures. Low humidity levels and temperatures falling down into the middle to upper 50s are expected tonight. Slightly milder temperatures will remain along the lakeshore, but still pleasant to open the windows type conditions. Southerly winds will return on Sunday on the back side of the exiting high pressure system. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sunday and went a few degrees above guidance with high temperatures lower to maybe middle 80s. A weak cold front will move down into the eastern Great Lakes region late Sunday night with some clouds and a slight chance for few scattered showers. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak cold front will settle south across the area Monday morning. A few residual light showers will be possible during the morning, mainly downwind of Lake Erie in the east. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies with the front for the first half of the day then scattering out from north to south during the afternoon. Highs on Monday expected to drop back 3 to 5 degrees across the northeast part of the area behind the front. High pressure builds in behind the front from Quebec to the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a degree or so cooler on Tuesday but drier air will bring lower humidity with mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains in control for much of next week while the upper level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures trend towards well above normal values by the end of the week. Went a couple degrees above guidance values each day which have a bias towards climatological normals in the later periods. The operational 12Z GFS tries to bring a front with some showers through on Friday but is an outlier from both other long range models and the GFS ensemble mean which maintain a strong ridge so will keep the forecast dry with continued warmth. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds northeast across the region. Some BR may sneak into KYNG towards daybreak today, but confidence is on the lower side with impacts. A cold front will sink south into the terminals towards the end of the period. Some lower VFR ceilings expected, and possible SHRA, however reductions below VFR will likely hold off until just after the period. Winds will increase out of the southwest today, but will generally be around 10 kts or less. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... Westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue for a few more hours on the east end of Lake Erie before dropping off and backing to the southwest. Extended the Small Craft Advisory and High Swimming Risk for a few more hours as wave heights remain in the 3 to 5 foot range, especially offshore. Otherwise southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots develop on Lake Erie on Sunday, shifting to the northeast by midday Monday in the wave of a cold front that will pass early Monday morning. Northeast winds of 10-15 knots will cause waves of 1 to 3 feet. There is also a chance of waterspouts with the frontal passage Monday morning. Beyond that, high pressure will set up over the eastern Great Lakes again through the first half of the week with easterly winds of 5 to 15 knots. Winds shift around to the south towards Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin/Oudeman SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Greenawalt