428 FXUS64 KBMX 142313 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 613 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0145 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ Thus far, temperatures have remained a little more tame as compared to yesterday. (We ended up breaking record highs at all four climate sites as a result.) Wouldn't expect to approach the century mark again today as subsidence & dry air isn't as prevalent, though will be quite warm regardless with a run for low to mid 90s currently ongoing. Our RADAR & satellite trends have suggested that cumulus fields are showing a little more coverage/vertical growth with further development expected in the coming hours. Expecting the greatest activity along the I-20/59 corridors, & into the northeast, where best PWs are available (~1.8" as suggested by latest RAP mesoanalysis) as well as proximity to a confluent axis noted in the 850-700 mb layer. Evaluation of the 12 Z RAOB earlier this morning did suggest that a few thunderstorms could produce localized gusty winds, though the overall microburst threat remains below a confidence threshold such that mention in the HWO was not needed. Nonetheless, this update yielded PoPs generally similar to the previous forecast cycle with only minor tweaks made to account for trends in the latest HREF means. Have maintained chance PoPs in a northeast to southwest fashion through the I-20/59 corridors, with a gradual decrease in coverage & intensity towards 9 PM as activity moves southwestward. Outside of any rainfall through this evening, & a stray shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, rain chances look very low through the next several days as the synoptic pattern suggests deep-layer ridging & above average temperatures to unfortunately continue. 40/Sizemore .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0401 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ Sunday through Friday. With Tropical Storm Humberto located to the east of Florida on Sunday, Alabama will be on the drier side of the storm. However, a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out as a narrow axis of enhanced moisture lingers along and south of I-59. Drier air will wrap around the west side of Humberto on Monday and Tuesday as subsidence increases across the region. Temperatures should soar back toward the 100 degree mark with the forecast area in the grips of an intensifying drought. Some relief may start to show up across our eastern counties on Wednesday with models indicating a wedge of high pressure along and east of the Appalachians. After one last day of upper 90s in our western counties on Wednesday, afternoon highs for Thursday and Friday should be several degrees lower. Unfortunately, there is still no rain in sight for the extended part of the forecast. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Isold showers and tstms will continue across central Alabama thru 02z, possibly impacting KTCL and KMGM. VFR conds will prevail thru the period with no cig or vsby issues outside convective areas. Thunderstorm chances less than 20 percent Sunday afternoon, and did not include any diurnal storms beyond 18z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible through this evening before drier conditions return to Central Alabama. Best rain chances through tonight will be across the north. Afternoon RH values remain above 40 percent Sunday. Lower humidity and hotter conditions should return for Monday and Tuesday. KBDI values will remain elevated due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 94 65 97 66 / 30 10 0 0 0 Anniston 69 95 67 97 67 / 20 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 72 95 70 97 70 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 73 95 70 97 70 / 30 10 0 0 0 Calera 71 95 68 97 68 / 20 10 0 0 0 Auburn 70 92 70 94 68 / 10 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 71 95 71 97 69 / 10 10 0 0 0 Troy 70 94 70 96 68 / 10 10 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$