578 FXUS62 KMLB 141957 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 .DISCUSSION... ...Hazardous Boating and Surf Conditions to Continue This Weekend... Currently-Tonight...Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to strengthen some more and continue a slow north-northwest motion into tonight over 100 miles offshore the east central Florida coast. Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon will diminish into tonight, but N/NE winds will still remain up to 10 to 15 mph especially along the coast overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will continue to push quickly onshore and well inland late this afternoon through this evening, with greatest chance for continuing onshore moving showers along the coast past midnight. Gusty winds up to 30 to 35 mph and brief downpours will continue with this activity, with occasional lightning strikes with any storms. High surf and minor beach erosion will continue to be a concern into tonight with building swell from Humberto, especially during high tide which will occur around 9 pm this evening. The High Surf Advisory has been extended through late tonight, but may need to continue for the entire coast or at least Volusia/Brevard coast into Sunday. Previous Discussion... Sun-Mon... By late weekend into early next week Tropical Cyclone Humberto is forecast to track slowly north-northwest about 140 miles east of Cape Canaveral at its closest approach to east central FL. Model guidance is in agreement the storm will stay offshore with minimal rain and wind impacts across the peninsula. Winds will back to the northwest/west by Sunday and remain that way through Monday evening. Rain chances are high on Sunday due to the proximity of the cyclone to the area and deep tropical moisture. While it will not be a washout, expect periods of heavy rainfall, some lightning storms and gusty winds through much of the day. The available CAM guidance beyond 24-30 hours shows this trend quite well leading to higher confidence in the forecast. By Monday, central FL will be squarely on the backside of Humberto's circulation with strong subsidence ongoing and a tight moisture gradient will develop across the area. Rain chances were trimmed back to around 30 percent, and that may end up being on the high side for areas north of I-4. Models do show an elongated moisture axis stretching from a weak low in the western Gulf of Mexico across south FL, if this plays out it will lead to higher rain chances from Melbourne south. Temperatures will be around average, afternoon highs will reach around 90 degrees and overnight lows in the mid 70s. Tue-Fri... Northerly flow will continue through late week as dry air on the backside of Humberto's circulation continues streaming over the FL peninsula. Tuesday is shaping up to be a dry day for most areas. An increase in moisture is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday, though rain chances remain on the low side around 20-40 percent. By Friday, a surface ridge builds in across the mid-Atlantic as winds veer onshore locally. This leads to scattered shower and isolated storm development during the afternoon. Temperatures remain near normal. && .AVIATION...Strong NE flow will produce sustained winds up to 20 kts with gusts of 23-28 kts through this afternoon. Sct/num SHRA will stream to the southwest, leading to brief MVFR/IFR reductions at terminals with gust potential near 35 kts. SHRA will diminish south of KMLB after sunset, then areawide after midnight. As Tropical Storm Humberto pulls away from the peninsula tomorrow, breezy conditions will decrease with sustained winds of 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... Tonight...TS Humberto will continue to move slowly north-northwest east of the coastal waters tonight, with a fresh N/NE breeze becoming W/NW south of Sebastian Inlet into late tonight. Northerly winds across the gulf stream and building swells from Humberto will build seas 6-8 feet nearshore and up to 9-11 feet offshore. This will continue hazardous boating conditions over the coastal waters with SCA continuing overnight. Sunday-Wednesday...Marine conditions will remain dangerous for small craft this weekend and into much of next week as Tropical Cyclone Humberto slowly moves north-northeast and eventually away from the area. Humberto will continue to generate a 6-8 feet swell nearshore and up to 12 feet offshore through Sunday evening. As the storm pulls away seas will decrease to 4-7 feet on Monday, but as Humberto intensifies over the western Atlantic it will generate an increased swell by Tuesday. North to northeast winds going against the Gulf Stream is forecast to generate seas of 9-10 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 86 76 88 / 50 60 40 30 MCO 77 90 76 91 / 30 60 20 30 MLB 77 89 76 89 / 50 60 30 30 VRB 77 90 75 90 / 40 60 30 40 LEE 75 90 75 92 / 30 60 20 20 SFB 76 89 75 91 / 40 60 20 30 ORL 77 89 76 91 / 40 60 20 30 FPR 77 91 75 92 / 40 60 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Volusia- Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...Weitlich RADAR/IMPACT WX....Sedlock AVIATION...Smith