465 FXUS62 KFFC 141426 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1026 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 .UPDATE... Overall, grids are in excellent shape this morning and line up well with latest hi-res guidance coming out. Best deep layer moisture, instability, and cold pocket aloft all exist over the Northern tier. Aided by a frontal boundary as well and these areas should have no problems firing off convection today. In fact, some areas across the NW have already received thunderstorm activity this morning. May increase pops slightly in these areas but otherwise no changes planned. Deese && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... Short range models are in good agreement as far as main features are concerned. The forecast area will remain under the influence of an upper level ridge. At the surface, easterly flow will continue through the period due to Cold Air Damming. A backdoor cold front will push into north GA and wash out by tonight. Models showing surface CAPEs near 1000 J/kg this afternoon into the early evening and do not anticipate convection that develops to continue too much past 9-10 pm tonight. Best chances for convective development will be across northeast and north GA in vicinity of the front between 2- 8pm. Given saturated grounds from last night's convection across mostly north and portions of central GA, we're starting to see some low level stratus develop, aided by the easterly winds. These clouds will be slow to diminish today and combined with the east winds should hold temperatures down today and Sunday. Afternoon highs will continue above normal for this time of year, but closer to 90 this afternoon and slightly warmer tomorrow. Heat indices are forecast less than 95 this afternoon and 93-97 degrees Sunday afternoon. Atwell LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/... Tropical storm Humberto is a non factor for the weather over N and central GA. All in all, rain chances will be sparse through much of the long term period with the area lacking the needed combination of sufficient moist and instability to produce showers/storms. At this point, Wednesday looks like the best day for any rain chances and greatly favoring east GA with 20-30 percent chances as a weak surge of moisture moves in on easterly low level flow. Otherwise, some combination of surface and/or upper level high pressure looks to rule. High temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area Monday and Tuesday before cooling off some mid to late week. BDL AVIATION... 12Z Update... The saturated grounds from late evening rains has allowed MVFR, and IFR to develop over ATL area and AHN sites. This will be aided by east winds that will dominate through the period. Wind speeds will be between 5-10kts. CIGS will slowly improve after sunrise - between 12-18Z, with SCT- BKN 030-050 prevailing after 15Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on cigs and TSRA chances. High on remaining elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 88 69 90 67 / 20 20 5 5 Atlanta 89 72 89 69 / 30 20 5 5 Blairsville 82 63 85 60 / 60 40 20 10 Cartersville 89 69 91 67 / 50 30 10 5 Columbus 92 72 93 71 / 20 10 5 5 Gainesville 86 69 88 68 / 40 30 10 5 Macon 91 70 92 69 / 20 10 5 5 Rome 90 68 90 66 / 50 30 5 0 Peachtree City 91 70 91 69 / 30 20 5 5 Vidalia 91 72 91 71 / 20 10 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Atwell LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...Deese