852 FXUS62 KTAE 141013 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 613 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail across the tri- state region through the TAF period. Winds will be from the E to NE around 5 knots overnight, then increasing to 10 knots, with occasional gusts up to 15 knots, in the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION [334 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Enhanced easterly to northeasterly flow between a ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Humberto to the SE will continue today. Widespread winds around 10 knots, with occasional gusts to 15-20 knots, will prevail. Wind speeds over the water will be slightly higher, thus a small craft advisory is warranted through 14Z. Although a gradual moisture return is expected throughout the day tomorrow, we will remain anomalously dry for this time of year. PoPs will be slightly higher compared to Friday, but remain low in the 10-15% range. High temps will be in the low to mid-90s across the tri-state region. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... The local area will remain mostly dry with northeast low level flow keeping deep moisture away from the area. A few brief showers could impinge on the eastern half of the area on Sunday, but this will not be significant. With the fairly dry airmass in place, afternoon high temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend, reaching the low to mid 90s for both Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will mostly be in the 70s. .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Deep layer northerly flow through most of the week is expected to yield mainly dry weather with rain chances mostly below 20 percent. High temperatures will be well above average by mid-week, possibly reaching the upper 90s and getting within a degree or two of the daily record highs. Slightly cooler northeast low level flow may knock the highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the end of the week. Overnight lows are expected to be generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .MARINE... East to northeast winds will occasionally reach advisory levels through the mid-morning hours across portions of the coastal waters with exercise caution conditions elsewhere. Winds and seas will be lower on Sunday through the middle of the week. .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersions over 75 are expected tomorrow. Patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours across Georgia and the Big Bend. Otherwise no fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... There are no flooding concerns for the next several days with mainly dry weather expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 73 94 72 95 / 10 0 20 0 10 Panama City 92 74 92 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dothan 91 71 93 71 94 / 10 0 0 0 10 Albany 90 73 91 72 93 / 20 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 90 73 90 71 91 / 10 0 30 10 10 Cross City 91 75 90 74 93 / 10 0 30 10 20 Apalachicola 90 74 90 75 91 / 10 10 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...DiCatarina SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...DiCatarina MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DiCatarina HYDROLOGY...DVD