221 FXUS61 KBGM 140131 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 931 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... It will be breezy to windy at times tonight out ahead of weak cold front crossing the region on Saturday. There will be a few showers developing, starting late tonight and continuing into Saturday. An extended period of dry weather is expected next week, as a large high pressure system builds in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 930 pm Update...Watching a line of thunderstorms out across eastern Lake Erie at this time. Latest guidance still has these storms weakening as they approach our western zones after midnight. As these showers and isolated t'storms do move in, they could mix down some of the strong winds aloft. Went ahead and issued a wind advisory for strong/gusty south winds through 8am Saturday from Steuben county northeast to Madison county. Please see ALBNPWBGM for more details on the expected winds. 730 pm update...Updated the near term forecast along the latest trends and guidance. Cloud cover increased a bit faster than expected and our area should remain mostly cloudy overnight into much of Saturday. Rain showers are still progged to arrive after midnight in the west, slowly spreading across the rest of the area during the predawn hours. Scattered showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be around through the day Saturday, especially central and eastern portions of the CWA, as a slow moving front progresses east. Other main story will be the strong, gusty southerly winds tonight. Model guidance continues to show a strong low level jet of 40-50 kts at 925mb/ 2k ft agl. This could put areas across the Finger Lakes and hills south of Syracuse close to advisory level winds. Will closely monitor the trends of the next few hours and decide if a short fused wind advisory may be needed for this area overnight. 3 pm update... Lower clouds remain entrenched along and west of the I-81 corridor late this afternoon, with drier air and sunshine to the east. Near-term guidance suggests the lower clouds will break up for a time over the Finger Lakes region this evening, with some evidence this is already occurring on satellite imagery. Later tonight, moisture will spread back into CNY/NEPA from south-north, as a decent low-level jet overspreads the area, just ahead of a weakening surface cold front. A few showers could move into our northern/western zones towards daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 310 pm update... The above mentioned cold front will continue to cross CNY/NEPA on Saturday and interact with a fairly moist air mass. Although this scenario should produce a few showers, the best upper-level forcing looks to bypass the region across Ontario/Quebec, so coverage/intensity should be limited. Saturday afternoon, as the aforementioned frontal zone pushes off to the east, drier air will begin to spread back into the Finger Lakes region by mid-late afternoon. Highs should range from the upper 60s- mid 70s. Saturday night and most of Sunday, weak high pressure and low-level dry advection will result in rain-free weather and seasonable temperatures. Sunday night, a weak surface trough will approach from the north, at about the same time that a northern stream short-wave skirts NY State. This may result in scattered showers, again generally light. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 315 pm update... An extended stretch of dry weather seems probable, as upper-level ridging over the central CONUS gradually builds eastward and a large surface high takes up residency over the northeastern states. Rain-free conditions, with mild days (highs in the upper 60s-70s) and cool nights (lows in the upper 40s-50s) should dominate the period. Available medium-range guidance well agrees that the tropical cyclone off the southeastern U.S. coast next week should get steered offshore, with no anticipated impacts across CNY/NEPA. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00z Update... Borderline MVFR to lower end VFR CIGS should continue much of the night. As the front approaches and some -shra develop CIGS are forecast to slowly begin falling to widespread MVFR after 09-12z Saturday. CIGS are then forecast to fall to fuel alternate MVFR later Saturday morning and into the afternoon. Expect improvement back to VFR late in the taf period from west to east. Southerly winds will continue to pick up tonight, with 20-30 kt gusts most likely at KBGM and KITH. Late tonight into early Saturday, LLWS conditions are anticipated, as a low-level jet of 40-50 kt at around 2000 feet AGL overruns the region. Outlook... Saturday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. Isolated restrictions due to patchy fog each morning. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ015>018-022-023- 025-036-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MJM/MDP SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...DGM/MJM/MDP