968 
FXUS63 KILX 131911
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
211 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

High pressure will dominate Ilinois over the next few days with
only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected. A warm front
should push through the area Saturday Night and bring above normal
temperatures for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Drier air continues to surge into the area this afternoon. The
initial cold front is about to move out of the FA as evident with
limited area of 70F+ dewpoints and cumulus. Gusty winds should
decouple this evening. With the ridge building in Saturday,
gradient should diminish and winds on Saturday should remain below
10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Overall, a fairly strong mid-level ridge should dominate Illinois
through much of next week. The main differences relate to the
strength of the ridge and how far south boundaries and moisture
can push into the ridge. The initial push of WAA Saturday Night
may be our best chance of precipitation during the period,
particularly northwest of the Illinois River. There is some
indication from the 12z models that there is potential for 
training and heavy rainfall amounts to our north where anticedent
moisture and forcing should be significanlt higher. Will have to
watch to ensure later runs do not shift this area further south.

As for temperatures, following the Saturday Night system heights
build significantly with 850 temps expected to climb to around 20C
by Monday. This should lead to highs well into the 80s. The 12z
operational GFS is faster at breaking down the ridge and bringing
some more seasonable temps in for the end of the week, but the
GEFS indicate that the operational is on the low side of the
solution envelope. Will follow more closely the 06z GEFS mean and
12z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Area of stratocumulus over eastern IA associated with post-frontal cold
advection is only advecting slowly east. The primary front has
pushed to I-70 as shown in the drop off of dewpoints. A secondary
front is now crossing the Mississippi River and is mst prominant
as a wind shift. As this second boundary pushes east, stratocu
make more progress into the northern central Illinois terminals.
Will keep a tempo broken MVFR deck at KPIA and KBMI through mid-
afternoon with clearing prior to 00z.

Gusty winds today should decouple this evening. Gradient slacks up
markedly during the night and winds will likely remain below 5 kts
or so tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Barker
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Barker