215 FXUS63 KEAX 121747 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 .Update... Issued at 1112 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2019 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms bubbled up this morning across northern Missouri with the help of a strong low level jet occurring just ahead of the surface frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska and central Kansas. And, while the low level jet this morning was enhanced by the nocturnal decoupling, the jet really owed it existence to the large trough spinning its way out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Hence, the jet did not mix out this morning as is typical for these nocturnal features, which resulted in keeping strong warm air advection going (noted at 700mb) ahead of the cold front. This, in turn, helped generate a new line of storms across eastern Kansas, stretching northeast towards St Joseph this morning. This mornings line of storms dones't look to have much pushing it east at this time, and will remain sub-severe as it slowly drifts east. And, as this line shifts east we expect it to scatter out as the cold front begins to catch up to the backside of this axis of activity, generating a new vigorous line of storms for the afternoon hours in our eastern Kansas counties. Overall, while the sub-severe storms this morning are earlier than expected, and the cloud cover may inhibit the start the of the strong storms this afternoon, the general timing and severe characterization for later today remains the same as it is tided to the cold front. Thus, we still expect strong damaging winds as the primary threat with a linear line of storms this afternoon and this evening, with training storms along the advancing cold front likely resulting in torrential rain for some folks. && .Discussion... Issued at 318 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2019 Primary forecast focus is strong to severe storms this afternoon through this evening. MCS currently moving across Nebraska and Northern Kansas is expected to weaken around sunrise, however a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms may hold together and skirt NW Missouri through the mid morning hours. Shortwave trough currently across western NE will move east. This feature will push cold front into NW MO around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to fire in the early afternoon across NW MO, moderate instability forecast with around 2500-3000 CAPE while 30 knots of 0- 6KM shear, it does look like stronger shear (>30 knots) will lag slightly behind storms. But should be enough instability and shear for discrete cells that form early in the afternoon to produce damaging winds near 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. However due to weaker shear hail threat should be minimized. Current thinking is that storms will affect the KC metro area in the afternoon through early evening hours, By later afternoon and evening storms will fill in and become more linear with a mainly damaging wind threat. Storms may slow down late this evening across southern portions of the forecast area, but flash flooding potential should be minimal as progressive nature of storms prevent flash flooding. After midnight the storms should be out of the area and pushing SE. By Friday dry conditions evolve with slightly cooler and less humid weather making for a nice comfortable end to the work week. Saturday warm and moist advection combined with weak shortwaves in west to east flow will bring in a chance of showers. Next week upper level ridge once again builds over region with warm and humid conditions prevailing, summer will hang on a bit longer. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2019 VFR conditions currently at the state line terminals wont last long as a line of thunderstorms just to the west will sweep across the Kansas-Missouri border this afternoon. Expect MVFR CIGs with TEMPOs for thunderstorms through the afternoon to early evening hours, with many amendments as storms move through. However, the frontal boundary will sweep through quickly, taking the storms east with them this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Update...Cutter Discussion...Christensen Aviation...Cutter