145 FXUS61 KCLE 112054 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 454 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front located from central lower Michigan and southwest Ontario will settle south tonight into Lake Erie and sag further south into central Ohio on Thursday. The front will drift north Thursday night. A cold front will follow from the west Friday afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and have slowly increased in intensity this afternoon but have remain below severe limits for the most part. Wind shear is highest further north near Lake Erie with effective shear of 30-35 knots. LCL heights are above 1000 m which will decrease the threat of tornadoes. PW values are near 1.7" which has kept DCAPE generally below 700 J/KG. MLCAPE has been around 1500 to near 2000 J/kg. There is just enough wind shear over the northern counties of Ohio to sustain some organization of the storms so the threat of damaging wind and isolated 1" size hail will continue for the next several hours. There will be diurnal stabilization of the boundary this evening so convection should decrease but there is still a question of whether or not more convection further north from Michigan will spread southeast across the area after midnight. The cold front to the north will move into Lake Erie late tonight and sag into the southern Lake Erie lake shore Thursday morning and into central Ohio during the afternoon. POPs will diminish during the morning and then increase in the afternoon over the southwest part of the CWA. The front will lift north Thursday night as a diffuse warm front especially over the western part of the CWA. With the frontal boundary in the area, temperatures will vary widely from the north to the southern counties on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will pass north of Lake Superior on Friday, lifting a warm front back north across the area. We will only be in the warm sector for a relatively short window as the associated cold front sweeps in from the west late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Tried to refine pops on Friday, with the highest values in NW Ohio during the afternoon, expanding east across the area during the evening and overnight hours. Given the front reaching northwest Ohio at peak heating, will need to monitor for a few stronger storms Friday afternoon, mainly west of I-71. Also raised highs a few degrees Friday, especially along the northeast lakeshore where temperatures may over achieve with southerly downsloping flow. High pressure and drier conditions return on Saturday. Temperatures will drop back to near or just slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models show an amplifying upper level ridge building back over the area for the first half of next week with above normal temperatures appear likely through the long term. The GFS tries to bring a wave of low pressure across the central Great Lakes with a cold front pushing south into the area Monday night followed by cooler temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the strength of the upper ridge overhead, will lean towards the other long range models with heat continuing into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Generally VFR conditions will continue into much of the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage and intensity through 21 UTC. Cumulus field will increase and become broken as well. MVFR conditions will develop in the heavier downpours. Brief improvement can be expect early this evening but lower clouds and some fog may develop after midnight as the cold front to the north approaches from the north along with lingering moisture in the boundary layer. The boundary will sag south into northern Ohio and nw PA Thursday morning and bring IFR to MVFR cigs. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible in showers/thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday morning and again in showers next week Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary located just north of Lake Erie will push south across the lake on Thursday with northeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots from east to west during the afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories accomapnied by a high swimming risk will likely be needed for most of the lake east of the Islands Thursday afternoon and evening. Water levels will also rise on western basin of Lake Erie with the east to northeast flow Thursday night but at this time are expected to peak at or below flooding levels. This boundary will lift back north as a warm front on Friday with a cold front sweeping east across Lake Erie on Friday night. High pressure will expand from west to east behind the front on Saturday and linger into the early part of next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaPlante NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...LaPlante MARINE...KEC