641 FXUS62 KTAE 111853 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 253 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 .NEAR/SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]... Recent ECAM guidance coupled with dry air observed throughout the mid-levels in this morning's 12 UTC sounding indicates low PoP chances for the overnight hours across the region. This dry pattern is expected to change as a tropical wave currently in the south Bahamas pushes westward into our region late in the work week. This will increase our PW values as well as our chances for PoPs later in the week and into the weekend. Low temperatures across the region are expected to remain in the low 70s. The large scale pattern over the region will feature an upper level ridge to the north centered near northern Georgia and Alabama providing easterly flow prevailing through the end of the work week. Dry mid-level air is expected to work in to the region following weak impulses rotating around the ridge. We can't rule out an isolated shower on Thursday across the southeast Big Bend, and other coastal regions, but activity will be sparse. Moisture content increases slightly Friday as the upper level ridge begins to translate east into the Atlantic, but scattered t-storms in the forecast will mostly be focused across our Big Bend counties with coverage anticipated to be more isolated over southern Georgia, and inland portions of the western FL Panhandle. Temperatures will remain warm in the mid 90s but will cool slightly by Friday with further decreases anticipated for the weekend. && .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... Long term forecasts are heavily reliant on a tropical wave that is currently located near eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected regionwide with the best coverage expected across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia along with slightly cooler high temperatures in the low 90s. Tropical moisture continues to increase on Sunday and Monday as a tropical wave moves into the region. At this time, we're closely monitoring the wave for potential tropical development with the 2pm(EDT) National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook indicating a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of tropical development over the next 120hrs. While confidence in the exact location of the tropical wave isn't high with a wide spread of forecasts from model to model, confidence is high that the end of the weekend will be wet, along with breezy conditions Sunday into Monday. We'll have future updates on this tropical wave as more information becomes available. As for temperatures, a much welcomed "cool down" is expected with high temperatures dropping back into the upper 80s on Sunday due to increased cloud cover. 90s are likely to return next week after the tropical wave passes through. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected across all area terminals throughout the period. Winds will remain out of the NE for the rest of the afternoon, with eastern terminals (ABY, VLD, TLH) shifting more easterly overnight and the western terminals (ECP, DHN) shifting more northward. Winds speeds will calm in the overnight hours and skies will clear across the entire region. Cloud coverage today will be limited to fairweather Cu in the lower levels. && .MARINE... Winds around 10 to 15 knots along with seas of 2 to 3 feet expect through Thursday before winds and seas quickly increase over the weekend as a tropical wave if forecast to pass through Gulf waters Sunday into Monday. Easterly to southeasterly winds around 15 to 25 knots are likely by Friday night and will persist into early next week with 3 to 6 feet seas expected. Advisory level conditions are likely along with widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially in the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersion values are possible across portions of the Florida Big Bend and parts of SW Georgia today. There is a potential for high dispersion values across our entire region tomorrow. Red flag conditions are currently not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... A drier weather pattern will remain in place through Friday but a wetter pattern looks on tap for the latter part of the weekend and into early next week as a tropical wave is forecast to move into the area. Rainfall amounts don't look significant enough at this time to cause widespread flooding, but tropical systems always bear watching. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 94 71 94 73 / 10 0 0 20 20 Panama City 74 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 10 20 20 Dothan 70 94 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 Albany 71 94 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 70 92 71 91 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 72 91 73 91 74 / 10 20 10 40 30 Apalachicola 74 90 74 90 75 / 10 10 20 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker/Bowen SHORT TERM...Barry/Bowen LONG TERM...Barry/Bowen AVIATION...Bunker/Bowen MARINE...Barry FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Dobbs