003 FXUS62 KJAX 111843 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 .NEAR TERM /Through Thursday Night/... An upper level low over north central Florida will move southwestward into the northeastern Gulf tonight, and then slowly westward into the central Gulf by Friday morning. Cool 500mb temps around -8 to -9C on the 12Z sounding were warming and will be around -7.5 to -8C by 00Z tonight as the upper low moves away from the region. Mid/upper level temps will then continue to warm to around -6.5C overnight tonight and through the day on Thursday. The fast east northeasterly flow and lack of convergence will lead to only low rain chances from streamer showers this afternoon moving inland from the Atlantic coast. If an isolated thunderstorm is able to form, it could become strong across the interior with gusty winds. A few coastal showers are possible overnight. Low temperatures will be in the low 70s across the interior and the mid to upper 70s at the coast due to the continuing onshore flow. Strong mid/upper level high pressure will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley through Thursday night. Surface high pressure will also remain across the Southeast through the period, with east northeasterly onshore flow. A tropical wave across the eastern Bahamas will slowly push west northwestward through Friday morning to the western Bahamas. Breezy onshore flow is expected at the beaches due to the strengthening pressure gradient between the high to the north and the low pressure to the southeast. Moisture levels will remain near normal through Thursday across northeast Florida in the 1.4-1.6 inch range, and the same across southeast Georgia today through Thursday morning. A drier pocket of air is forecast to rotate southwestward across southeast Georgia late Thursday afternoon and into the overnight hours, with precipitable water values dropping to around 1 inch. Rain chances will remain generally in the 20-30% range through Thursday night, with streamer showers pushing onshore Thursday, and a few showers are possible for the northeast Florida beaches Thursday night. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and the mid 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s across the interior and the upper 70s at the beaches once again. .SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday Night/... Mid/upper level high pressure over the Southeast on Friday is forecast to slowly shift eastward to the coast of the Carolinas by Saturday morning and then into the western Atlantic Saturday night. A tropical wave is forecast to move across the western Bahamas and towards south Florida on Friday, and then could potentially develop into a tropical cyclone near the southeast Florida coast. The models have been slowing down the movement of this system, which means the deeper tropical moisture is now not expected to arrive across northeast Florida until Saturday. Some of the guidance that is slower or shows a slightly deeper low pressure area brings the system further northwestward up the Florida peninsula, including the ECMWF. A couple outliers even show the system moving to the east of the Florida Peninsula, like the UKMET. The trend has been to slow the system down and to be further east over the past 24 hours, and this will be something to watch as we head into the weekend. The current consensus is for an area of low pressure or tropical wave to track across southern Florida this weekend and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers and embedded storms are expected for north central Florida on Friday, with decreasing rain chances northward. Mainly dry conditions are expected for southeast Georgia, especially across the interior. Deep tropical moisture will then spread over the entire region Saturday, with numerous to widespread showers and embedded storms. .LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/... An area of low pressure is forecast to move towards the north central Gulf coast or Florida Panhandle on Sunday, and deep tropical moisture is forecast to continue across the area. How much rainfall will depend on the ultimate track and strength of the tropical wave currently near 75W. For now, high rain chances are expected Sunday and Monday. High pressure is then forecast to build across the area Tuesday into the middle of the week, with rain chances returning to normal. && .AVIATION... Onshore flow at 10-15 knots this afternoon will impact all TAF sites with gusty E-NE winds and brief MVFR showers at times, so for now have kept as VCSH and will update as needed for more intense shower or even the slight chance for a thunderstorm, but storm chances too low to include 6-8 hour long VCTS groups. Diurnal shower activity will fade over inland areas with VFR conds at GNV/VQQ with tempo MVFR fog towards sunrise, while coastal shower chance will remain overnight at Atlc TAF sites and have kept VCSH at CRG/SSI/SGJ along with slightly better chances of MVFR CIGS in the 2500-3000 ft range towards morning. E-NE winds increase into the 10-15G15-20 knot range after 13-14z on Thu with MVFR CIGS expected along the coastal TAFs that will push inland in the 3000-3500 ft range for inland TAFs by the 14-15z time frame and with brief showers possible again have kept VCSH for all TAF sites. && .MARINE... High pressure will dominate north of the waters while a tropical wave crosses the Bahamas and south Florida through the weekend. Winds will increase to near exercise caution levels Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens as the low approaches the Bahamas. As the low passes to the south of the local waters Friday through Sunday, combined seas will near advisory levels due to building swells within the outer waters. Rain potential increases Fri-Sun due to tropical moisture overspreading the waters. Rip Currents: Extended period of at least moderate risk of rip currents this week due to persistent onshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 76 87 77 86 / 10 20 10 10 JAX 74 89 76 87 / 10 30 10 20 SGJ 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 30 GNV 71 90 73 88 / 10 20 10 20 OCF 72 91 73 89 / 10 20 10 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Kennedy/Hess/Bricker