526 FXUS64 KSHV 110020 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 720 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex terminals quiet evening underway with some MVFR by daybreak at KLFK and I-20 terminals by around 14Z briefly for an hour or two. Southerly winds persist 5-10KT and a little gusty with a late day sea breeze and the chance for more late day convection on Wednesday, and then not for the rest of week. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Active sea breeze once again today bringing sct tstms to mainly the srn portions of our region this aftn, as the upper ridge across the sern CONUS and the upper low over S TX enhances this nwd movement. Should see most of this activity diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Low level moisture will continue to increase tonight, and slightly warmer min temps will result, especially across areas of E TX where stratus develops towards sunrise Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday likely to reach into the mid 90s again, with the enhanced sea breeze activity likely developing again during the aftn. Sunset should see much of the convection die off Wednesday evening, with overnight mins in the low to mid 70s. /12/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/ Models are in decent agreement with regard to the forecast for the region in the long term period. Anticipate the elongated subtropical ridge axis aloft (oriented from west to east) to be positioned over the southern CONUS and ensuring temperatures remain 4 to 7 degrees above normal for the bulk of the days. A cold front will try to slide in from the north on Friday, but model consensus is unfortunately good that this front will largely fall apart as it works into the teeth of the ridge over the Arklatex. The more interesting part of the forecast comes early next week due to the potential for tropical disturbance to progress toward the central Gulf Coast (on a northwestward path) in that time frame. Once again, model consensus on this system is generally not too bad, especially considering we are talking 5 to 7 days down the road. The NHC is currently forecasting only a 30 percent chance of true tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf in 4 to 5 days, mainly because environmental conditions are not expected to be extremely favorable. Regardless, at least a hybrid-type tropical low could be in a position to bring back rain chances to at least eastern and southern portions of the Four State region by the end of the official 7 day forecast period. At this point we see no more than a low potential for hazardous weather in our region in the long term period. Although temperatures will be above normal and some highs could be near 100 once again (especially Friday and Saturday), peak heat index values are expected to remain mostly below 105 degrees as humidity does not get out of control. We will have to keep a close eye on the forecast regarding the potential system in the Gulf as eventual heavy rain issues next week cannot be ruled out if a bonafide tropical cyclone develops and tracks a little farther west than current model consensus. /50/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ AVIATION... VFR to prevail through much of the 18Z TAF pd. Some isold convection will be possible during the aftn hours but should diminish around sunset. Otherwise, MVFR stratus to develop across E TX terminals around or just after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning towards the end the pd. Otherwise, expect sly winds 5-10 kts during the daylight hours, with light and vrbl winds overnight. /12/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 74 95 74 / 20 20 20 20 MLU 97 73 96 73 / 10 20 20 10 DEQ 95 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10 TXK 94 73 93 74 / 10 20 10 10 ELD 96 71 94 71 / 10 20 10 10 TYR 94 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 20 GGG 95 74 95 73 / 20 20 20 20 LFK 95 74 93 73 / 20 20 30 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/12/50