137 FXUS61 KBTV 102338 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... As warm front continues to lift north across our region today showers will spread into our area. Most widespread coverage of showers will be along international border, and mainly in the early morning hours. Showers and possible thunderstorms will persist Wednesday ahead of a cold front to push through late in the day into the overnight. Drier and cooler conditions expected Thursday and Friday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 738 PM EDT Tuesday...The forecast remains in overall decent shape as we head into the evening hours. I did massage PoPs somewhat to speed up arrival time of light shower activity across the area, not uncommon in robust warm thermal advection patterns. Some increasing signals that overall QPF may be a bit overdone tonight per latest HRRR/NAM nest output which depicts only trace to very light amounts with current activity through mid-evening and larger bulk of showers arriving overnight to track increasingly south/west of area while weakening. Time will tell and given uncertainty will leave our current QPF unchanged for now. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... South to southwest flow has developed with a warm front lifting northward across our area. Low pressure system will track from North of the Great Lakes, eastward and just north of our forecast area. Showers will spread across the Northern New York and Vermont area, mostly concentrated along the international border. Has taken awhile for the showers to enter our area, but moistening low levels on southwesterly flow has occurred this afternoon and showers will be moving into the area from the west by about 21-23z. Moisture will increase overnight with PWATs edging up over 1.5 inches during the overnight hours, well above normal for this time of year. A few thunderstorms will be possible due to elevated instability, mainly from the Adirondacks westward. The influx of moisture, warm advection on breezy south winds, and ample cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures much warmer than what we've seen the past couple of nights. Lows will mainly be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Showers will wane a bit in coverage after 12z tomorrow as warm front lifts north into Canada and the best moisture shifts north and east of the region. However, expect a bit of a resurgence in the afternoon as a couple of frontal boundaries move south out of Canada. There will still be ample moisture ahead of the front, though less than overnight, and breaks in the cloud cover will help to allow temperatures to rise into the mid 70s to around 80 by the afternoon. Highest CAPE values will remain to our south, though there will be enough instability to spark convection. Rainfall totals from tonight through Wednesday will range from around a quarter of an inch to over an inch of rain. Areas that have thunderstorms could see more, and our most southern zones will likely see less. Low pressure continues to lift northeastward and well away from our area Wednesday night and surface high begins to ridge into the area from the northwest. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 411 PM EDT Tuesday...Looking at a nice stretch of quiet weather to end the work week with a welcomed return of more seasonal temperatures as cool Canadian high pressure settles over the region. A modestly strong subsidence inversion will keep an abundance of clouds around through mid-day Thursday before drier air aloft wins out and skies trend clear by sunset with daytime temps topping out in the 60s. Clear skies and light winds will make for excellent radiational cooling Thursday night, and with 925-850mb temps only a degree or so warmer than this morning, we'll probably see a repeat of temps ranging through the 40s to some isolated 30s in the colder hollows. Some patchy frost is not out of the question. Then to end the week on Friday, clear skies in the morning will give way to increasing clouds late in the day as our next system approaches for Friday night. After a slightly below normal day Thursday, temps will return to normal Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 411 PM EDT Tuesday...Overall the long term won't feature any largely impactful systems and is mainly dominated by high pressure with the exception of Friday night and Saturday. Late Friday evening, low pressure tracking well northeast of the region towards James Bay will drag the tail end of a cold front through the North Country Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, models highlight a decent low level jet of 30-40kts at 925mb moving up the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys which will provide some gusty winds, but due to a nocturnal arrival time mixing will be limited. Nevertheless, gusts in the 20-30mph from the south- southwest are plausible until the frontal passage mid-day Saturday. Thereafter, a fast zonal flow aloft will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through Sunday night while surface high pressure begins to build into the region. Could see a few spot showers Sunday night, but by and large the area should remain mainly dry through the end of the period. Temps will be seasonal to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period with scattered shower activity expected from 00-12Z. Some brief MVFR possible at KSLK during this period otherwise cigs to mainly range from 040-080 AGL overnight. Winds quite variable and mainly light southerly with some slight directional variation between terminals. Strongest flow at KBTV where occnl gusts to 20 kts expected overnight. Some brief southerly LLWS to 35 kts also possible at KMPV/KSLK in the 05-10Z time frame. After 12Z winds remain light to modest south/southwesterly under mainly BKN VFR cigs. Some breaks to SCT possible at valley terminals such as KPBG and KBTV. After 18Z winds slowly veer to west/northwesterly with the approach/passage of a cold front. Some brief light shower activity possible along the boundary at northern terminals, but scattered nature of coverage warrants only VCSH at this point. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...JMG/Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...JMG