824 FXUS61 KCLE 091615 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1215 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather locally and across the eastern Great Lakes Region today. A warm front will lift north across the area Tuesday. Low pressure will move across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday pulling a cold front across the area. Unsettled weather may impact the region towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cloud cover continues to be stubborn this morning, mainly across the lake and into portions of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Clouds are dissipating over the rest of the forecast area as expected though. Updated the sky cover to reflect this change. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather will continue today and tonight. For tomorrow, I bumped up high temperatures a degree or two. There will be a change in air mass tomorrow and temperatures can typically be a bit higher than model guidance in this regime change. Also made a slight adjustment to pops for Tuesday night. Will take a closer look at that for the next forecast update as more of the model guidance comes in. Previous Discussion... Upper level heights will start to rise today into Tuesday with an upper level ridge building just south of the region across the Tennessee River Valley and Lower Ohio River Valley. At the surface, there is weak high pressure building down from Ontario this morning with a light northeast to easterly flow. Temperatures will again be seasonable mild if not just a touch below average. High and mid level cloudiness this morning will give way to slowly clearing skies by late this afternoon and this evening. A light southeasterly surface flow will return by tonight. A surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. Southerly winds will start to increase with warmer temperatures and more humidity returning to the area. Highs on Tuesday will climb back to the mid 80s and feeling more like Summer again. We should remain dry over the next 24 to 36 hours due to capping and increasing upper level ridging. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins with models showing an upper ridge centered over the southeastern states. The ridge will extend into Ohio but will flatten across the Great Lakes. A the surface, a cold front will be extended across the central lakes. This front will drop south across Lake Erie late Wednesday night/Thursday morning before lifting back north as a warm front late Thursday and Thursday night. as deepening low pressure moves through the western lakes into Ontario. Will have chance pops for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with the front in the area. Highs Wednesday mainly mid 80s. Thursday highs upper 70s nwrn PA to mid 80s in northern OH away from the lake. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front associated with the western lakes low will move through Friday afternoon and evening. Expect thunderstorms to move through the region along and ahead of the cold front Friday through Friday night. Will have chance to likely pops for the period. Will hang onto a slight chance pop early Saturday far east but otherwise, expect a dry day as high pressure and dry air move in from the west. High pressure will remain in control for Sunday. Highs Friday low to mid 80s. Saturday and Sunday 75 to 80. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Generally VFR ceilings and conditions are expected through the next 24 to 30 hours for TAF sites. A broken deck between 7K and 10K feet is expected with no impacts to aviation expected. Skies may clear out with scattered or broken cirrus clouds by this evening. Winds will remain on the light side from the northeast to east around 5 knots with a gradual shift to southeast around 5 knots tonight. .OUTLOOK...Low chances of non-VFR in showers/thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday then better chances on Friday. && .MARINE... No headlines expected through the period. For today expect mainly east flow around 10 knots as high pressure moves east across Ontario into Quebec. Winds turn move southeast tonight as the high reaches northern New England. South flow Monday will turn southwest during the day at 10 to 15 knots as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The low will track east into southern Quebec by Wednesday morning keeping flow southwest at 10 to 15 knots on the lake. Wednesday night winds turn northwest behind a weak cold front. Speeds will be around 5 knots however as the pressure gradient becomes quite weak. Thursday variable flow will turn east around 10 knots. Friday flow will turn southwest as deepening low pressure moves through the western lakes forcing a cold front east across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin/Saunders SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...TK