475 FXUS64 KBMX 080859 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 359 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0350 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2019/ Through Tonight. The cold front did not drape down as far as it was expected yesterday, so will still have to deal with it again today. Look for isolated showers/storms to develop this afternoon, generally in the south. Since models overdid the rain will go with just 20 pops during the afternoon. The main story will once again be the heat. Look for heat index values to exceed 105 across the south again today and a heat advisory remains in effect through 9 pm and may even need to be expanded to Monday as well. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0350 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2019/ Monday through Saturday. The upper-level ridge will center over Georgia and South Carolina on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northward through Texas. Winds will gradually shift from northerly to southerly/southeasterly and advect the weak surface front back northward as a warm front. This will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development south of the moisture gradient, mainly along and south of I-85 then spreading northward through the day, where the most favorable environment for development will exist. Once again, not expecting a lot of coverage since high pressure will dominate on the synoptic scale, so thunderstorms will need to overcome subsidence and dry mid- level air to become sustainable, but higher low-level moisture content will remain and potentially increase across the south, especially with the return of southerly flow. Hot afternoon temperatures continue on Monday which will allow for moderate destabilization during the afternoon with inverted-v signatures noted on forecast soundings below 850mb and dry mid-level air aloft. The environment will support an isolated microburst risk, but only if storms are able to overcome the aforementioned factors to develop. Additionally, dewpoints south of the front will remain in the low 70s, and counties near the I-85 corridor and south may require a Heat Advisory again on Monday as the front moves northward and temperatures hit the upper 90s. Therefore, I will keep heat in the HWO for Monday with an increased confidence. While temperatures will still be above average for locations north of I-85, these areas will be north of the front and dewpoints should mix into the low 60s. Most areas will remain dry Tuesday through Friday thanks to the high pressure building over the Southeast and only a few isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible through this period. Highs will remain above average until finally beginning to trend downward on Saturday when the upper level ridge flattens over the region and begins building over the western Atlantic. Guidance is in fairly good agreement on rain chances increasing late Saturday as an inverted trough of low pressure moves westward across the Gulf Coast and cyclonic flow aloft increases over the forecast area. 86 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A weak and wavy front was slowly progressing southward early this morning and will be barely noticed. Winds will show some directional change from west to north as the front passes, but will remain light at best. With light wind, there could be some brief MVFR fog along and south of the front. So included 5 sm at TCL, TOI, and MGM. The front should push south of the terminals during the day. Winds will be 4-8kts out of the west north west. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air is in place across the majority of Central AL today with high pressure building over the area, but RH values are expected to remain above 30%. 20 foot winds will also be below critical values. KBDI values will remain elevated due to ongoing drought conditions. Isolated to scattered showers may develop in the south this afternoon where a stalled front will begin moving northward. Most locations will remain rain free. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 66 97 70 96 / 10 0 10 10 30 Anniston 95 66 98 71 96 / 10 0 10 10 30 Birmingham 96 70 98 74 97 / 10 0 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 97 71 97 73 96 / 10 0 10 20 10 Calera 97 69 98 72 96 / 10 0 10 10 20 Auburn 94 71 95 72 93 / 10 10 20 10 30 Montgomery 99 73 97 73 96 / 20 10 30 10 20 Troy 98 72 96 72 95 / 20 10 30 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bullock...Dallas...Elmore... Greene...Hale...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...Perry... Pike...Russell...Sumter. && $$