504 FXUS62 KMHX 080238 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1038 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will linger over northern sections of our area from late Sunday into Monday. The front will drop south and through the region by Tuesday. High pressure will again build over the area mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 1035 PM Saturday...No changes with the current forecast. Weak high pressure continues off the coast tonight. A weak cold front is over the western part of the state. This boundary will gradually move east, but remain to the west of our area tonight. Expect another clear night with calm winds inland, light along the coast. Patchy fog will be possible inland where temps fall near dew points with winds decoupling for much of the night. Confidence is medium in fog coverage so limited visibilities to 3 miles at this time. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...The previously mentioned frontal boundary will become stationary to the west and north of the forecast area, while quasi-zonal flow aloft. The boundary will serve the focus for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon as MUCAPE values will range 2000-3000 J and LI values around -5C. The best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be our northern and western zones. Expect highs from the mid 80's to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Sat...A weak boundary will push through the region Mon night followed by high pres Tue thru Thu. A tropical wave will pass S of the area late in the week. Monday and Monday night...Weak front over the region Monday will grad push S of the region by late Mon night. Although moisture is limited some weak lift ahead of nrn stream short wave could spark sct convection Mon into Mon night and will cont mainly chc pops across the area. By late Mon night most of the precip shld be pushing S of the area. Quite warm Mon with highs 85 to 90 inland...little cooler beaches. Lows Mon night upr 60s well inland to low/mid 70s beaches. Tuesday through Thu...The front gets pushed further south by midweek, with return to dry weather, and only slightly cooler temps. Thicknesses/hts will remain above normal so temps will follow suite and remain above climo with highs well into the 80s...poss touching 90 inland Thu. Fri and Sat...Mdls show tropical wave or trf passing W mainly to the S late week. GFS slightly further N and shows more moisture over ern NC espcly Sat. ECMWF further S with wave and keeps most of the area dry...for now will cont prev fcst of just slight chc pops given uncertainty. Cont rather warm with rdg aloft over region...highs mid/upr 80s inland and low/mid 80s cst. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 745 PM Saturday...VFR conditions will persist this evening, then a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions for inland TAF sites PGV/ISO/OAJ due to decoupled winds allowing temps to fall near dew points for much of the night. Fog would be favored but cannot rule out shallow low stratus as well. Any fog that develops will gradually dissipate by 13/14z, with a return to VFR conditions thereafter. Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/... As of 230 PM Sat...Bulk of the time will see VFR but cant rule a few pds of sub VFR. Sct shra expected with weak bndry Mon into Mon night however limited cvrg shld produce only brief impacts to a terminal. High pres will dominate Tue thru Thu with dry weather. With light winds at night and wet ground will likely see some late night/early morning patchy fog/st. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight into Sunday/... As of 1035 PM Saturday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate variable winds 10 kts or less with seas ranging 3-5 ft across the coastal waters. Winds will gradually veer to the SE tonight and remain SE at 10 knots or less through Sunday as high pressure remains the dominant feature off the coast. Seas have subsided below 6 ft and will continue to subside on Sunday to 2-4 ft. Long Term /Sun night thru Thu/... As of 230 PM Sat...No headlines expected this period. Weak bndry over the region Mon with light SSE winds S to ENE winds N and seas 2 to 3 ft. As the bndry pushes to the S Tue and high pres builds in expect NE winds to increase 10 to 15 kt with some gust to near 20 kts with seas building 3 to 4 ft most wtrs. ENE winds less than 15 kts cont Wed then with the high over the area Thu expect light winds. 2 to 4 foot seas Wed subsiding to 3 ft or less Thu. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...DAG/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...RF/TL AVIATION...DAG/RF MARINE...DAG/RF/BM