447 FXUS61 KBGM 071906 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 306 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Though isolated showers could occur this evening from a weak passing disturbance, high pressure will otherwise take charge to keep things mainly dry and quiet the next few days. However, a system is expected to carry through the region on Wednesday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 3 PM Update... A couple of very weak disturbances will pass through the area with little fanfare, during what will mostly be a building in of dry high pressure. Isolated showers will be found with the coincidence of peak of diurnal heating and a passage of shortwave this afternoon-early evening. That being said, we also have forced subsidence anywhere above about 9-10 kft agl via the right exit region of strong upper jet that arrives across the eastern Great Lakes region. Fairly good lapse rates/convective overturning will is occurring below the 700mb level, but depth of that mixing as well as moisture content will be quite limited with entrainment of dry air occurring. This means that showers, though present, will be light and brief with very wide gaps in between. Overall a mostly dry with batches of clouds and occasional drops, as well as a cool gusty west-northwest wind. Loss of heating rapidly dissipates showers this evening, with a deck of stratocumulus trapped under a subsidence inversion. However, another weak wave will approach late tonight and then pass through Sunday morning to midday. The chance of showers late tonight into Sunday is not totally zero, but vast majority will be dry and indeed there may not even be a single shower because moisture depth will be so shallow. Stratocumulus will become more cellular during heating, with breaks of sunshine being allowed. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, followed by highs of mid 60s to mid 70s Sunday. Winds will not be as gusty Sunday, yet still out the northwest in the wake of the second wave as high pressure builds in from the western to central Great Lakes. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 3 PM Update... Quiet cool weather is anticipated for the short term period. The center of high pressure will move from Lake Huron Sunday night, to New England for Monday-Monday night. However, it will be sprawling enough to dominate our weather as well. This will keep the lower portion of the atmosphere mostly dry and rain- free other than patchy early morning fog. Meanwhile, zonal flow aloft will contain waves with high to mid level clouds at times. The air mass will be a cool Canadian one, with lows of 40s-low 50s and highs of mid 60s-lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern is forecast for the long term as an upper atmospheric storm system drops out of Canada. This storm will increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday as temperatures approach 80 and dew points climb into the middle-60s. Instability will increase by afternoon, leading to a round of storms. A flat ridge over the Northeastern U.S. will persist on Thursday and Friday. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible late in the week. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Though scattered to broken clouds will exist, and even isolated showers, VFR conditions are anticipated through this evening. KAVP should maintain VFR for the entire TAF period, but for the NY terminals, a deck of MVFR stratus is expected to form late tonight into early Sunday morning. KITH will probably eventually dip into fuel alternate required level due to light west-northwest flow down Cayuga Lake, and KELM is likely to experience a window of typical early morning valley fog below alternate minimums. Winds will be west-northwest 8-12 knots this afternoon, before slackening to variable/light northwest overnight to midday Sunday. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday night through Thursday...restrictions possible in showers and storms, with best chance on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MDP