020 FXUS61 KBGM 071749 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Though isolated showers could occur this evening from a weak passing disturbance, high pressure will otherwise take charge to keep things mainly dry and quiet the next few days. However, a system is expected to carry through the region on Wednesday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 950 AM Update... Forecast adjusted in an attempt to time the isolated-scattered showers with the coincidence of peak of diurnal heating with passage of shortwave this afternoon. That being said, we will have forced subsidence anywhere above about 9-10 kft agl via the right exit region of strong upper jet that arrives across the eastern Great Lakes region. Fairly good lapse rates/convective overturning will occur below the 700mb level, but depth of that mixing as well as moisture content will be quite limited with entrainment of dry air occurring. This means that showers, though present, will be light and brief with wide gaps in between. Overall a mostly dry day yet with batches of clouds and occasional drops, as well as a cool gusty west-northwest wind. Previous discussion... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the low clouds and patchy fog this morning...potential for scattered showers later this afternoon through tonight...and quiet weather on Sunday. Weak high pressure at the surface and slight ridging aloft this morning has allowed for fairly quiet weather with only a layer of scattered to broken low level clouds across central NY and ne PA. Breaks in the clouds will likely lead to localized areas of patchy fog. Most of the fog should dissipate around 9 am. The brief ridge will be quickly replaced by the next incoming upper level short wave, arriving from the nw later today. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s with enough low level moisture to produce a couple hundred J/kg of SB CAPE by the afternoon. The combination of this weak instability and the short wave will produce isolated to scattered rain showers over mainly central NY, but possibly extending into ne PA as well at times. This pattern will persist into tonight, although the coverage and intensity will likely diminish as the night wears on. The wave exits to the east and heights start to rise again with high pressure at the surface building back in from the west on Sunday. These conditions will keep the weather quiet through most of the day Sunday with high temperatures a few degrees cooler...only into the upper 60s in NY and lower 70s in PA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring quiet, fair weather and pleasant temperatures to NY and PA Sunday night through Tuesday. As the high slides into New England on Tuesday, winds will become more southerly across our forecast area and push temperatures well into the 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern is forecast for the long term as an upper atmospheric storm system drops out of Canada. This storm will increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday as temperatures approach 80 and dew points climb into the middle-60s. Instability will increase by afternoon, leading to a round of storms. A flat ridge over the Northeastern U.S. will persist on Thursday and Friday. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible late in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Though scattered to broken clouds will exist, and even isolated showers, VFR conditions are anticipated through this evening. KAVP should maintain VFR for the entire TAF period, but for the NY terminals, a deck of MVFR stratus is expected to form late tonight into early Sunday morning. KITH will probably eventually dip into fuel alternate required level due to light west-northwest flow down Cayuga Lake, and KELM is likely to experience a window of typical early morning valley fog below alternate minimums. Winds will be west-northwest 8-12 knots this afternoon, before slackening to variable/light northwest overnight to midday Sunday. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday night through Thursday...restrictions possible in showers and storms, with best chance on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MDP