535 FXUS62 KCHS 071721 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 121 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will move into the area this weekend and dissipate. High pressure will then prevail early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No significant changes with the latest update. General troughing will persist across the area today but the atmosphere will remain too dry for any rain. Should see another unseasonably warm day with near record highs in the mid to upper 90s most inland locales. Expect a lowering of dewpoints so heat indices should only peak out near 100 degrees away from the cooler beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight: Any lingering isolated convection well inland will dissipate after sunset. A weak cold front is forecast to meander into the interior overnight with weak low pressure lurking somewhere across east-central Georgia. Expect dry conditions to prevail through daybreak with lows only dropping into the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and in Downtown Charleston. Sunday through Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of rising heights as high pressure builds over the Southeast. At the surface, a dry front should move into the region Sunday, become stationary along or nearby our area into Monday, then dissipate by Tuesday as High pressure far to the north stretches into our area. Dry conditions are expected on Sunday. Models hint at some convection over portions of the coastal waters Sunday night, brushing the Charleston County coast, so we have slight chance POPs there. Monday the risk of convection spreads across our entire area. Though, POPs are only at a slight chance. Monday night, similar to Sunday night. Only the convection could also brush the coast all the way down to our GA counties. Tuesday, models are indicating the greatest convective potential inland during the afternoon, so we bumped POPs up there. There are indications of higher DCAPEs Monday and Tuesday. While the severe risk is low, we'll have to keep an eye out for higher wind gusts if some stronger storms manage to form. Heights, thickness values, and surface winds support above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Highs cool down closer to normal on Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain very mild for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging will persist over the Southeast through Thursday, then start to weaken on Friday. The surface pattern should consist of high pressure to our north through Thursday, with a front possibly approaching from the north later Friday. Despite the high being in place, models indicate rounds of afternoon/evening convection each day with some nocturnal activity over the coastal waters. Though, the convection isn't looking too intense because we are moving out of our summer convective season. Temperatures are forecasted to be within a few degrees of normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR at KCHS/KSAV through 18Z Sunday. Extended Aviation: There is a low probability of flight restrictions due to convection each afternoon starting on Monday. Otherwise, VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Southwest winds will back more southerly today and linger into tonight. Winds will average 10 kt today and 10-15 kt tonight with seas 1-2 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: Tranquil marine conditions are expected as a weak front moves into the area this weekend and dissipates. High pressure will then prevail early next week. No Small Craft Advisories are expected. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 7 September: KCHS: 95/1947 and previous KCXM: 97/1921 KSAV: 99/1939 Record highs for 8 September: KCHS: 96/1990 KCXM: 96/1939 KSAV: 99/1925 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB CLIMATE...