965 FXUS61 KRLX 070235 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1035 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cold front tonight may yield light rain showers overnight into midday Saturday. Warming trend through mid-week with return of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday/Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1030 PM Friday... Radar still showing a few weak echos across eastern half of the forecast area, so will continue isolated shower mention. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dewpoint overnight based on current obs and trends. As of 130 PM Friday... A weak cold front will approach the region from the northwest this evening and move through overnight. Given substantial inversion around 5kft MSL with much drier air aloft think this will be largely a dry frontal passage aside from what little rainfall any shallow rain showers can muster. With the spotty nature of any precipitation expected and amounts in the one to two hundreths range have capped PoPs under 20% through Saturday morning. Should see a rather extensive stratocumulus field in place early Saturday and think this may limit reductions in visibility in fog to 1 to 4 miles except in northwestern portions of the forecast area which may see some clearing toward daybreak. Skies gradually scatter out through the day Saturday, and while not out of the question to see a little more very light rain out of low topped showers, have kept the forecast dry for the daylight hours. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Friday... The above mentioned frontal boundary will kick out to the east Saturday evening. With weak support and drier air, only expecting chances of any showers in the far northeast mountains into the overnight. High pressure and drier air filters in on Sunday to suppress any chances of convection during the day. Expecting a nice fair weather break with high pressure lasting into Monday. High temperatures will generally be around the 80's and mid 50's for lows over the entire area. A warming trend sets in to the start of the new week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Starting the new week, a sort of active weather pattern sets in place over the region with periodic breaks from inclement weather. A short wave will pass overhead for Monday providing lift and increasing chances for showers. Temperatures will be on the rise with daytime heating reaching above norm for this time of year allowing temperatures to reach around 90 degrees for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Besides the potential for diurnal thunderstorms on these two days (although probabilities are low at this time), the area has a good chance to see a break before the next system arrives. A low pressure system is prog to affect the area on Wednesday into Thursday and will drag its associated frontal boundaries through the area increasing chances for showers/storms. Numerous short waves will traverse over the area during this time and during the rest of the week at which point another frontal boundary will affect the area on Friday/Saturday. As models suggest, this system is forecast to be more organized and stronger than the previous two. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM Friday... Line of broken showers moving across the forecast area this evening. This throws a bit of a wrench in the fog forecast. Like the last few night, think EKN will fog early and dense. Models not as excited about CKB as they were the last few nights with a thicker stratus deck overhead, so opted to decrease fog there. Was not going to go real dense at CRW, but then a shower moved across so opted to add in IFR fog at the last minute. Otherwise, MVFR to possibly IFR stratus is expected tonight into Saturday morning. With warm river water, could still get some valley fog outside of the spots mentioned above. Clouds will gradually lift Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/07/19 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H L M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H M L H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M M M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L M H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... River valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ NEAR TERM...MZ/JP SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MZ