596 FXUS64 KHUN 062000 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Hurricane Dorian is finally exiting to the northeast, about 130 miles east of the VA/NC border. With an exception of helping to continue a NW flow over this region, no weather of consequence was occurring from that system. As the tropical system moves further to the north and east, upper troughing situated along the Atlantic coast will weaken. Upper ridging over the southern Plains will also be dampened, as a series of systems moving across the north Pacific move over the NW CONUS. Otherwise with an exception of a few fair weather cumulus over middle Tennessee drifting to the south, clear skies prevailed across the forecast area. Mid afternoon temperatures were in the upper 80s and lower 90s with generally NW winds of 5-15 mph. A cold front boundary extending from south of Kansas City to north of Louisville to a weak area of low pressure over the southern Great Lakes (delineated rather well from visible satellite imagery) will continue moving southward this evening, reaching the forecast area towards daybreak Saturday. Given that cooler night time temperatures and a more stable environment will be in place, dry weather should continue. However clouds should increase somewhat during the night time. Another mild night is expected with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Added patchy late night fog in some of our more fog prone locations before sunrise Saturday. Mixing provided by the boundary should inhibit fog formation over NW Alabama. .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A general zonal patten over the lower-48 on Sat/Sun will become more amplified to start a new work week. Mean troughing is forecast to deepen over the western states, while upper ridging reestablishes itself over the SE CONUS. This will result in very warm to hot, and dry conditions for the weekend and early next week. Despite the passage of the frontal boundary, more very warm to hot conditions are forecast to end this week, with highs rising into the lower 90s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Sunday and especially on Monday, with highs warming into the mid 90s (with a few upper 90s possible), as a upper ridging heights rising above the 590 decameter level are realized. Old record high temps of 107/106 in Huntsville/Muscle Shoals respectively from 1925 will likely stand. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 The broad upper-level ridge sits over the southeastern US, but uncertainty lies in the strength of this upper-level ridge. A stronger upper-level ridge as depicted by the ECMWF means the Tennessee Valley stays hot and dry on Tuesday. A weaker ridge, as shown by the GFS, allows for some showers and thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday afternoon, with moisture feeding up from the Gulf. These storms won't have much shear to work with, but with good instability, some stronger thunderstorms could be possible (but should remain isolated in nature). Any showers that develop should help to keep temperatures down on Tuesday, but if showers don't develop, some areas may get close to 100 degrees. Wednesday and Thursday, the pattern continues to support a chance for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings, again with some stronger thunderstorms possible but isolated in nature. Later next week, the GFS and ECMWF both show some sort of front approaching the area on Friday. This will lead to another chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday ahead of the front during the day, and along the front Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 VFR flight weather conditions are expected through this evening. Northwest flow will gust at 12-15kt this afternoon before diminishing to light or calm by 00Z. Patchy BR with visibility of 3-5SM (MVFR) is possible from 09-13Z at both KMSL and KHSV. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...McCoy AVIATION...17 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.