428 FXUS62 KCHS 051602 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1202 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Dorian will pass north just off the central South Carolina coast today, bringing significant impacts especially to portions of the South Carolina Lowcountry. Dorian will continue to move away from the area tonight through Friday. High pressure will return by the weekend, then persist through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane this morning about 50 miles east southeast of Charleston. The storm will slowly continue to move northward coming very close to the northern Charleston County coast this afternoon. Flash Flooding: Latest radar imagery indicates heavier rainfall affecting areas around Charleston and points north and east as the western edge of Dorian's eye wall brush the area along with the best upper forcing. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. Given the incoming high tide early to mid this afternoon there should be widespread flash flooding near the coast. Wind: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue to impact areas mainly near and east of I-95, especially north and east of Charleston closer to the center of Dorian. Hurricane force winds, especially in gusts, will continue to impact areas mainly near the SC coast, especially northern Charleston County where gusts near 100 mph are possible. In general, the strongest winds will be associated with the strongest convection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight: Rapidly improving conditions will continue as Dorian moves away from the region. Most, if not all, of the rain will be gone by daybreak. Friday through Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of rising heights as Dorian moves away from the region. At the surface, Dorian will be moving away Friday morning while a dry cold front moves through our area. High pressure will then build in from the northwest Friday afternoon and prevail across the region through the weekend. Dry conditions are expected throughout the short term. Temperatures will be above normal due to downslope flow on Friday followed by southerly flow over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak ridging should build over the Southeast the first part of the week, followed by semi-zonal flow midweek. The surface pattern should consist of stationary fronts nearby or across the region. There are hints that maybe some afternoon convection may return each afternoon starting on Monday due to the location of the fronts. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of normal. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Strong tropical storm conditions will continue through early afternoon before slowly improving. Extended Aviation: VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Dorian will continue to bring hurricane conditions to the SC waters and tropical storm conditions to the GA waters. As the storm moves begins to move away from our area later today and especially tonight, conditions will quickly improve from south to north. Thursday through Monday: Dorian is forecasted to move away from our area on Friday. High pressure will return by the weekend, then persist through early next week. Conditions will continue to improve through the weekend. No Small Craft Advisories are expected. Rip Currents: There is a High Risk of rip currents for all of the beaches today due to large swells from Dorian impacting the beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents could persist into Friday due to remnant swells. High Surf: A High Surf Advisory continues through this evening for all of the beaches due to breakers of approximately 5 to 10 ft, with slowly lowering breaker heights from south to north as winds turn offshore behind Dorian. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Storm Surge Warning continues for coastal areas from Colleton County northward with the greatest potential for at least 3 feet of inundation across far northern Charleston County during this afternoon's high tide. As a reminder, our tide forecasts for Charleston, SC and Ft Pulaski, GA displayed on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) are deterministic forecasts reflecting our best- guess tide level at specific tide gage locations. These forecasts are relative to Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). Meanwhile, the storm surge forecasts that appear in our other hurricane- related products are relative to Above Ground Level (AGL), which is inundation. These forecasts incorporate the uncertainty of predicting storm surge as well as the range of possible impacts based on location, and thus will typically be greater than what appears on AHPS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ101-116>119-138>141. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ117-119- 139-141. SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ042>044. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ048>051. Hurricane Warning for SCZ045-047>052. Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ043>045-048>052. Storm Surge Warning for SCZ049-050-052. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ354-374. Hurricane Warning for AMZ330-350-352. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...