243 FXUS63 KTOP 042323 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 623 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Quiet conditions are expected over the next 36 hours as a short- wave trough departs to the east southeast, allowing summer-like temperatures and humidity to return for Thursday. Surface high pressure will drift east of the region tonight, allowing winds to remain just strong enough to prevent fog development even as low- level moisture begins to increase. Heat indices Thursday may reach the upper 90s, and while a southwesterly breeze should mitigate some of the oppression of the heat, caution should still be taken with outdoor activities and afternoon sports. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Friday will stay dry and warm as the CWA remains on the northeastern periphery of broad mid-level ridging centered over CO, NM, and the TX panhandle. By the weekend, we see a pattern shift as a deep trough makes its way toward the Pacific coast and the ridge flattens out, with zonal flow over the Central Plains. Embedded shortwaves ahead of this trough may bring chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. From there, we continue to see small on and off rain chances Monday and Tuesday as the trough pushes across the western US. The Canadian model appears to be an outlier in that it breaks down the trough with weak ridging in the southern US by early next week, where the GFS/ECMWF keep the trough just to our west with a stronger ridge in place to our southeast. Northeast KS ends up between systems as a result, which will have implications as to how likely we are to receive rain. Meanwhile, temperatures don't look to change a whole lot with highs in the mid to upper 80s, slightly cooler toward the NE border and warmer toward central KS. Dew points will remain in the 60s through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Forecast soundings show mixing in the lower levels overnight which will keep the probability of fog at the terminals low. Winds will shift to the south southwest and increase into the 10 to 12 kt range after 15Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Laflin LONG TERM...Picha AVIATION...53