665 FXUS63 KFGF 041834 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 134 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Quiet weather is still expected in the next couple of hours. The main changes that were made were for temperatures and sky cover. Temperatures have remained slightly cooler than expected in NW Minnesota and NE North Dakota. Highs in lakes country will top out in the upper 60s with ND highs in the lower to mid 70s. Much of the area has remained clear with some clouds in the Baudette and Roseau areas. Cloud cover will increase across the north this afternoon with precipitation holding off until the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Cloud cover remains nearly nil across the area this morning with only a few scattered clouds over the James Valley. Low temperatures have fallen into the 40s thanks to calm winds and favorable radiative conditions. Some of the cooler locations this morning could see the upper 30s before we warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. Our next shortwave and associated rain/thunderstorm chances occur tonight into Thursday morning. We will see precipitation chances increase late this evening with relatively widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity through just before sunrise Thursday. Soundings indicate limited potential for strong thunderstorms. Instability will be limited and with cooler air at the surface, will remain trapped within the rather small EML above 750 mb. QPF is expected to be limited to about one half inch in the heaviest shower activity with general amounts of around one tenth of an inch. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The end of the week into the weekend will see 500mb flow aloft with short wave moving SE across the Dakotas as SFC high pressure slides across Manitoba into Minnesota. As a result a rain no rain cut off is expected somewhere across the Devils Lake basin southwestward into west central MN where areas east of the line stay dry this weekend and west of the line will have the chance for a tenth or two of rainfall Saturday. After another 70 degree day Friday the clouds will keep temps in the 60s Saturday. Sunday mornings temps appear set to be the coolest in the period with lows in the 40s and some mid 30s across NW MN are possible under the aforementioned SFC high. Sunday the 500mb flow transitions as long wave troughing sets up across the Pacific NW and brings SW flow aloft to the area. Rain chances increase from south to north Sunday night into Monday as warm air advection and some moisture return reaches into the area as warm front stalls some where across the region. The cloudy regime will keep highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s to start next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 For the TAF period, there is the possibility for conditions to drop down to at least MVFR before sunrise following showers and possibly thunderstorms after sunset. Flight categories may drop into the IFR range given the rainfall and cooling temperatures near sunrise with isolated fog possible. FAR still holds the possibility of thunder near midnight, although coverage will be better at GFK, DVL, BJI, and TVF. Due to a low-level jet, there is the possibility of LLWS between the surface to 2,500 feet AGL with southerly to southwesterly winds of 30 to 40 knots possible in this level. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/Wasilewski SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Godon/Wasilewski