914 FXUS63 KTOP 041757 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1257 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The cold front that moved into northeast KS yesterday continued to progress southward through east-central KS overnight. As of 08Z, the front is draped across southern KS and a large surface ridge is located over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Aloft, an expansive mid- level ridge stretches from the Four Corners region eastward over much of KS, OK and northern TX, with troughing over the Great Lakes. && ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Small, isolated showers developed overnight in north-central KS near a zone of what appeared to be slight isentropic ascent on the 310K surface. Have kept a mention of slight chance POPs toward sunrise, but coverage will remain extremely limited and showers will likely dissipate quickly after developing. Dewpoints have been falling behind yesterday's front, and drier air will continue to filter in early today as surface pressure increases. Temperatures should also be noticeably cooler than yesterday with highs topping out in the low 80s for much of the forecast area, but a touch warmer for locations in central KS. The center of the surface ridge will be northeast of the area by tonight, and surface winds will begin to veer to more of a southerly direction. That will set the stage for a quick warm up tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The surface boundary located south of the area will begin to lift back northward as a warm front tomorrow as an area of low pressure advances across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. Return flow will allow for the advection of warmer air and higher dewpoints into the area. The current forecast has temps reaching the upper 80s with dewpoints increasing to around 70 degrees. The resulting heat index will be in the upper 90s tomorrow afternoon. The aforementioned surface low will continue to track east with a trailing cold front expected to move into the CWA tomorrow night. FROPA will be dry tomorrow night/early Friday due to weak forcing and lack of moisture through the column. More of an active mid-level pattern will allow for the ridge to break down this weekend. Most long-range models show a mid-level storm system moving across the northwestern tier of the CONUS and into the Midwest on Saturday. As of right now, most of Saturday looks dry, but precip chances will start to increase later into the weekend and early next week as an active mid-level pattern persists. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at the TAF sites. A few high clouds will move across the area with winds slowly veering from the east toward the south by tomorrow morning, increasing slightly as high sfc pressure moves east and a stronger pressure gradient moves in. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Teefey SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...Teefey AVIATION...Laflin/Picha