756 
FXUS63 KFGF 040839
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Cloud cover remains nearly nil across the area this morning with 
only a few scattered clouds over the James Valley. Low temperatures 
have fallen into the 40s thanks to calm winds and favorable 
radiative conditions. Some of the cooler locations this morning 
could see the upper 30s before we warm into the upper 60s to 
lower 70s this afternoon. 

Our next shortwave and associated rain/thunderstorm chances occur 
tonight into Thursday morning. We will see precipitation chances 
increase late this evening with relatively widespread shower and 
embedded thunderstorm activity through just before sunrise Thursday. 
Soundings indicate limited potential for strong thunderstorms. 
Instability will be limited and with cooler air at the surface, 
will remain trapped within the rather small EML above 750 mb. QPF 
is expected to be limited to about one half inch in the heaviest 
shower activity with general amounts of around one tenth of an 
inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

The end of the week into the weekend will see 500mb flow aloft with 
short wave moving SE across the Dakotas as SFC high pressure slides 
across Manitoba into Minnesota. As a result a rain no rain cut off 
is expected somewhere across the Devils Lake basin southwestward 
into west central MN where areas east of the line stay dry this 
weekend and west of the line will have the chance for a tenth or two 
of rainfall Saturday. After another 70 degree day Friday the clouds 
will keep temps in the 60s Saturday. Sunday mornings temps appear 
set to be the coolest in the period with lows in the 40s and some 
mid 30s across NW MN are possible under the aforementioned SFC high. 

Sunday the 500mb flow transitions as long wave troughing sets up 
across the Pacific NW and brings SW flow aloft to the area. Rain 
chances increase from south to north Sunday night into Monday as 
warm air advection and some moisture return reaches into the area as 
warm front stalls some where across the region. The cloudy regime 
will keep highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s to start 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019

A few clouds around 3500 ft still hanging around KTVF and KBJI,
but they should scatter out shortly. VFR conditions throughout the
period. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the south by
mid morning at around 10 kts. There could be some precip moving in
by the end of the period, so far the best threat before 06Z
Thursday will be at KDVL and KGFK, so have VCSH mention. Kept the
other sites dry for now. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JR