517 FXUS62 KTAE 040512 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Thursday] While VFR will prevail through the TAF, winds will be gusty at times due to the peripheral effects from Dorian. Expect gusts to be highest further east near VLD. Rain is forecast to remain east of our regional terminals. && .PREV DISCUSSION [823 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Hurricane Dorian has started to slowly move north, paralleling the east coast of FL and should be east of Melbourne, FL by Wed morning. Winds will lighten slightly overnight with the lack of daytime heating but with the pressure gradient tightening between the hurricane and high pressure to the west, they will stay around 5- 10MPH. Moisture wrapping around Dorian will move into the eastern half of our area with the northeast flow. A very tight moisture gradient from west to east continues tonight but cloud cover should diminish into the overnight hours with some clouds lingering in the east where the highest moisture is. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Hurricane Dorian will continue to move northward between two upper ridge axis and be steered northeastward by a trough moving across the Great Lakes region. No significant impacts are expected from Dorian other than a chance of a few showers across the far eastern sections on Wednesday along with some wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s Wednesday to mid 90s to near 100 degrees Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... Dry and subsident north to northwest flow will take hold on the heels of Dorian as it exits the region. A front is still progged by the models to move into the southeast US but will be stopped by high pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Kept low end rain chances Monday and beyond by confidence is low. Temperatures are expected to be above average with highs well into the 90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. .MARINE... Moderate north to northwesterly winds are expected through much of the upcoming week. Winds and seas will remain elevated all week with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions likely at times. Small craft advisories may be needed for waters off Dixie and Taylor counties tonight through Thursday. .FIRE WEATHER... The area will remain dry for the most part over the next few days, with the exception of a few showers possible over the far eastern Big Bend on Wednesday. High dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, RH values will remain above critical thresholds and red flag conditions are not expected. .HYDROLOGY... There are no flooding concerns for the next several days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 75 98 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 94 78 93 74 92 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 94 73 94 67 93 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 93 75 95 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 90 73 95 70 93 / 30 10 0 0 0 Cross City 90 75 94 74 93 / 30 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 93 78 93 74 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM...Scholl AVIATION...Harrigan MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Fieux HYDROLOGY...Scholl