775 
FXUS63 KEAX 032045
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 3 2019

Surface pattern today indicates a couple well defined features, 
which will influence the weather over the next few hours. Off to the 
west, a surface trough is located over NE New Mexico and off to the 
east is a SFC ridge over the mid south. Between these two features 
is a weak pressure gradient which is responsible for southeasterly 
winds. The SE winds along with mid level ridging is helping get 
temperatures a few degrees above normal, with highs this afternoon 
peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s 
area-wide are contributing to a muggy airmass, which is allowing 
heat indices to creep into the lower 100s. A third surface feature 
that could play into the weather through this evening is a surface 
ridge over northern high plains. The southern extent of this ridge 
is taking on the form of a cold front and is currently located along 
the NE/MO border area. This cold front will continue to sag 
southward through the evening, which may kick off a round of 
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. Forecast 
soundings indicate a very capped off environment, so at this point 
it looks pretty unlikely that deep convection will form. The lack of 
any hi-res model convection as well as a lack of any discernible 
agitated or growing CU on satellite increase confidence in having a 
dry forecast through this evening. That being said, given the very 
unstable environment created by the aforementioned heat and 
humidity, should an isolated storm form it will reside in an 
environment conducive for that storm to be strong or severe. 

This cold front will continue to sag southward through the night, 
putting most of the area deeper within a cooler and drier air mass 
for Wednesday. Dry conditions will continue through the rest of the 
week, with increasing daytime highs as the surface ridge moves east 
and is replaced with upstream surface troughing. The next 
appreciable chance for rain comes Saturday night into Sunday morning 
when a shortwave trough moves through the area along with a surface 
cold front. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 3 2019

Went ahead and removed the VCTS mention from this package. With the 
lower/mid atmosphere very much capped it's unlikely that even 
isolated convection occurs, and if so, it's unlikely to be within 10 
miles of the terminal. Otherwise, with gradually shifting winds in 
the post frontal environment tried to contour that shift with the 
remaining lines. Cloud cover changes offered some built-in 
opportunities to reflect that winds shift with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton