029 FXUS61 KRLX 030721 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 321 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overnight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Dense valley fog was clearly evident on GOES-R imagery early this morning. This fog will lift briefly into low stratus, before quickly mixing out by mid morning. This same imagery showed that stratus or low stratocu was not amounting to much early this morning, but low level moisture may still materialize into a few low morning cu after sunrise. Otherwise high pressure will bring abundant sunshine today in a dry column amidst a strengthening subsidence inversion. The high will yield to light south to southwest flow over the middle Ohio Valley overnight tonight, with increasing clouds ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. As the driving upper level short wave trough, digging through the Great Lakes and into the mid and uppe Ohio Valley by dawn Wednesday, almost out runs the cold front, showers are possible in southeast Ohio by that time. Highs today close to MET, central guidance and the previous forecast, close to 90 over the southern and central lowlands of WV. H85 temperatures climbing above 20C above the inversion would support much higher highs if not for the inversion and late timing. No changes were needed on lows tonight in light of the latest guidance, notwithstanding the MAV, with radiative cooling in the valleys most of the night at least east of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... A moisture starved weak cold front crosses Wednesday with nothing more than a few showers or thundershowers. High pressures sails across New England Thursday and Friday as Dorian tracks along the Carolina coast and out to sea. This will keep the region in general subsidence for a dry forecast to end the work week. Temperatures will start out toasty Wednesday before backing off for late week to more seasonable levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 235 AM Tuesday... Mean longwave trof will remain across the northeastern tier of the CONUS over the weekend with dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected over the area. A possible mid level feature crosses early next week which will reintroduce low precip chances. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 AM Monday... IFR valley fog was already forming, and affecting northern sites PKB, CKB and EKN, where it should become dense by 08Z and persist through 13Z before lifting. CRW and HTS should have IFR fog 08Z-09Z which then should be dense 09Z-13Z before lifting. Even BKW could get IFR fog around 09Z-11Z. Fog Tuesday morning will lift briefly into low stratus before quickly mixing out altogether, although there will be few morning cu 2-3 kft. High pressure will bring VFR conditions through the balance of the forecast period. Surface flow will be calm to light and variable, while light north flow aloft into Tuesday morning becomes light south Tuesday afternoon, and then light to moderate southwest Tuesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High except medium on timing of fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing degree of fog and stratus development may vary overnight. BKW may experience more MVFR/IFR stratus instead of IFR fog overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/03/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM