824 FXHW60 PHFO 030642 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 842 PM HST Mon Sep 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate trades will continue through Tuesday, then increase into the moderate to breezy range Wednesday through the second half of the week and upcoming weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain locations, especially through the overnight and early morning periods as pockets of higher moisture move through. The exception will be over the leeward areas of the Big Island, where afternoon and evening clouds and showers form in response to the local sea breeze. && .DISCUSSION... The latest surface analysis showed a weak trough northeast of the islands and high pressure centered to its north. Despite this trough to the northeast, light to moderate trades are holding locally. High clouds associated with a large area of showers and storms several hundred miles southwest of the area continue to stream over the region from west to east due to an upper low to the west. At the surface, clouds and showers are focusing over the typical windward locations. Rainfall accumulations, however, have remained light over the past six hours (through 7 PM HST), except for the leeward coast of the Big Island over and around Honaunau where heavy showers formed and quickly produced up to 1.95 inches (most of that falling within a 3-hr period). The short-term guidance remains in good agreement and shows the trades holding in the light to moderate range through Tuesday as the aforementioned surface trough passes to the north. Although drier air has moved into the area over the past 24-hrs, the warm conditions will continue. High temperatures continue to come in higher than predicted each day, especially for Honolulu and Kahului (reached 94 and 95 degrees over the weekend). Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain locations, especially through the overnight and early morning periods. The exception will be over the leeward areas of the Big Island, where afternoon and evening clouds and showers form in response to the local sea breeze. Guidance remains in decent agreement and shows the gradient tightening locally as the trough passes to the north and weakens. Trades will respond and become breezy through the second half of the week. Rising moisture associated with a trough passing far to the south is forecast to move through the islands from east to west Wednesday through Thursday. Shower coverage will likely respond and increase, especially through the overnight and early morning hours over windward and mountain locations. && .AVIATION... Southwesterly winds aloft will allow for more mid and upper level clouds to push over the state tonight. However, in the lower levels, clouds and showers caught in the east northeast trade wind flow will be rather limited as drier air infiltrates the area. Brief MVFR conditions may occur due to mountain obscuration, but not expecting anything widespread. No AIRMETs are currently in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will keep moderate trade winds in place across the area. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. Trade winds are expected to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island Friday through the weekend. A small north-northwest swell is expected to fill in, peak Tuesday, then slowly lower Wednesday and Thursday. A series of small southerly swells are expected through Thursday, with a slightly larger southerly one Friday through Sunday. Easterly trade winds will continue to produce short-period, choppy surf along east facing shores, with some increase in size expected during the middle and latter half of the week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gibbs AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Kinel