617 FXUS64 KBMX 022358 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 658 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019/ Through Tonight. Moisture values remain quite limited over Central Alabama this afternoon. But K-Indices and mean moisture have come up in the southeast with spot convection trying to pop up. Most places will remain dry through tonight, but will keep a 15 pop for areas north and far southeast. Most areas are into the 90s at 3 pm and 90 to 95 still anticipated the next hour or so. Any convection will quickly dissipate after sunset and have no mention this evening. Lows overnight will be very similar to last night in the 60s and 70s. With an overall drier airmass and slightly lower dew points across the area, did not mention any low clouds or fog overnight. 75 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019/ Tuesday through Monday. The latest model guidance remains in fair agreement with the synoptic pattern through much of the week. Central Alabama remains in a weakness between the Bermuda ridge in the Atlantic and a ridge centered over the Intermountain West. It appears that the short wave moving toward the eastern seaboard will inch Dorian northward, while a stronger system Wednesday picks it up. Additionally, there is now a good chance of some development in the western Gulf of Mexico associated with that tropical wave. For the specifics on Dorian and potential development in the western Gulf, refer to the National Hurricane Centers detailed forecast and impacts. Central Alabama stays on the eastern periphery of the ridge and west of any trough axis. This provides us with a dry airmass and very little rain chances through the period. Did not add any mention of rain at this time. Low level thickness values do fluctuate, especially Thursday behind a cold front. High temperatures look to stay above normal in the 90s for the most part while lows will be near normal in the 60s and 70s. 75 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. A VFR forecast is expected over the next 24 hours as drier air moves into Central Alabama with high pressure settling in for Tuesday. The only from group changes will consist of typical diurnal wind changes. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the far north. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the 40s, and winds aloft will be generally light. Rain chances decrease Monday as drier air moves in. The dry air hangs around and no mention of rain the remainder of the week. Minimum relative humidities drop into the 30s each afternoon. 20 foot winds remain below 10 mph in most locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 94 66 95 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 Anniston 68 95 68 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 71 96 70 96 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 70 95 70 96 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Calera 70 96 69 96 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Auburn 69 92 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 71 96 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 69 92 68 95 69 / 0 10 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$ 75/08