939 FXUS64 KMOB 012058 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 358 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A weak flow pattern aloft will remain in place across our forecast area late this afternoon into early this evening. A zone of enhanced deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values around 2 inches, along with residual instability and weak ascent will support isolated to locally scattered convection continuing across portions of our region into the early evening hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms should then become focused offshore or near the immediate coast late this evening into the overnight hours. Lows range from around 70 to the lower 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. An upper level ridge of high pressure stretching eastward across the Plains states and Mississippi Valley region will gradually build into the Tennessee Valley and northern portions of AL/GA on Monday. This pattern will support a drier northeasterly flow aloft across most of our area through Monday afternoon. We will keep a dry forecast in place across most interior areas on Monday. Moisture will be a little deeper near the coast Monday afternoon, with PWATs around 1.7 to 1.9 inches and there are some indications that convergence along a weak seabreeze near the coast could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. We have kept 20% coverage of POPs in place mainly south of a Wiggins, MS to Pensacola, FL line Monday afternoon. Northeasterly surface flow will otherwise continue across the region with a surface ridge of high pressure building across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and also well to the west of Major Hurricane Dorian that is projected to move little between the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern FL peninsula Monday. High temperatures Monday afternoon should reach into the lower 90s over most locations. /21 .SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Dorian continues to head slowly north over/along the Florida Atlantic coast, being directed in a weak upper trough between an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains and another over the central Atlantic. This keeps the forecast area under dry, general northerly low level flow through the Short Term. Even with the east/west wobbling of the track of Dorian, his path remains well east of the area, keeping any outer rainbands well east of the forecast area. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with the Plains/Desert Southwest upper ridge and dry airmass remaining in control. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 90s, lows from around 70 well inland to mid 70s along the coast. /16 .LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Guidance is advertising a surface cold front moving south across the forecast area before stalling over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the Thursday into Thursday night. Differences in the strength of the front (GFS is advertising a more significant shot of cooler/drier air moving over the region than the ECMWF) is leading to significant differences in the resultant temperatures (GFS 3-5 degrees cooler). For the forecast have started with the warmer ECMWF, then bumped that down with the ECMWF ensemble mean indicating a cooler airmass then the operational ECMWF. High temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s expected, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s well inland to mid 70s along the coast. A few areas may see temperatures in the mid 60s Friday morning along and north of Highway 84. /16 && .MARINE...A light to moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. A northerly to northwesterly flow will develop late Tuesday and continue through the end of the week as Hurricane Dorian tracks northward near the southeastern Atlantic coast well to the east of our area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 93 73 96 73 97 74 96 / 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 76 93 75 95 76 96 76 96 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 76 90 77 92 77 93 78 93 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 73 93 71 96 71 96 71 96 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 71 92 70 95 71 96 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 71 93 70 96 71 94 70 94 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 72 92 72 95 72 96 73 96 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob