532 FXUS61 KCLE 011949 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 349 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface front will cross the area this evening followed by another by midday Monday. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes between Tuesday and Wednesday and take a cold front across early Wednesday morning. High pressure will then be in place across the region for the rest of the work week with cooler and drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Ample cloud cover has kept much of the area fairly stable this afternoon. The exception has been a narrow corridor along/east of the I-71 corridor. With the approach of a convectively induced circulation and the upper shortwave energy, expecting an expansion of shower/thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area through this evening. Kept the thunder chances on the low side though with the limited instability. Locally heavy rainfall is possible though. This feature will take all evening/into the early overnight to cross the area and we pool the low level moisture along the area of surface convergence. This airmass remains though into Monday morning/midday and with the passage of another minor shortwave early Monday have had to linger precip chances into the second period of the forecast. Expecting improving conditions for the afternoon Monday. Clouds will attempt to scatter from the northwest, but may take until mid/late afternoon to reach the southern and eastern counties. Temperatures will be mild tonight, and return to the mid/upper 70s for Labor Day. Will have a few more locations drop back into the 50s Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday should remain dry as we await the arrival of a stronger cold front that will cross the region by Wednesday afternoon. Expect to see shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening into the overnight. The showers/thunderstorms should then end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday with the cold front eventually moving away from the area. A few of the thunderstorms could be a bit stronger on Wednesday. We will monitor this over the next couple days. High pressure will take control of the region Wednesday night. Tuesday will be the warm day of the short term with all locations warming into the 80s. Cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in control of the region Thursday until at least early Friday with dry conditions expected. Models then struggle with the development of the next area of low pressure that may impact the region Friday night into Saturday. No confidence in the GFS timing at this point so have leaned toward the ECMWF scenario holding rain chances off until Saturday. Cool and dry conditions are expected into Saturday. Highs should range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows will be cool with many locations away from the lake dipping into the 40s Thursday night. Slightly warmer Friday night and Saturday night with lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Area of showers/embedded thunder working across the western terminals will tend to fill in with a few additional thunderstorms across the east terminals this afternoon. Areas of MVFR vsby/isolated IFR can be expected with the precipitation. Boundary laying from MFD to CLE to ERI with southerly winds south of the boundary and east-northeast winds north of the boundary. Upper support will cross the area this evening, but a few stray showers may linger longer than that across the east. Overnight expect MVFR ceilings to develop with some areas of IFR possible and a slow improvement Monday morning. .OUTLOOK...Isolated non-VFR late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. && .MARINE... High pressure has moved to New England allowing a warm front to move to near the south shore of the lake. Winds from the east this afternoon will shift to the south and southwest as the warm front crosses the lake. A weak cold front will then cross the lake early Monday with light northerly winds anticipated into the afternoon. High pressure should briefly ridge across the lake from Ontario Monday night with light winds. A much deeper low will move from the upper Great Lakes to Quebec on Wednesday. Expect increasing southwest winds ahead of a cold front that will cross the lake by Wednesday afternoon with northerly winds expected in its wake in to Wednesday night. Will need to monitor the southwest winds ahead of the front Tuesday night and then the northerly winds into Wednesday night for the need of a small craft advisory. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...MM